The Milwaukee Brewers will attempt a four-game sweep as they conclude their weekend series with the Cincinnati Reds at the Great American Ballpark. It’s time to examine our MLB odds series with a Brewers-Reds prediction and pick.
The Brewers demolished the Reds 10-2 last night behind a potent offense and great pitching. It started badly for Milwaukee, trailing 1-0 heading into the first inning. Then, Hunter Renfroe crushed an absolute shot into the second deck in left field for a two-run blast. It was his 26th of the season, putting the Brewers up 2-1. Next, Omar Narvaez singled to left-center, giving the Brewers a 3-1 lead. Tyrone Taylor added a single to make it 4-1. Later, Renfroe blasted a moonbeam that landed just over the wall in left field for a two-run bomb. It was his 27th of the season and second of the game, putting the Brewers up 6-1. Milwaukee held on for the win.
Freddy Peralta is taking the mound for the Brewers. Peralta is 4-3 with a 3.45 ERA. He will return from a two-week stint on the injured list, as he missed time due to an injury in his throwing shoulder. Peralta is 2-0 with a 3.38 ERA in two starts against the Reds this season. Additionally, he is 2-1 with a 3.55 ERA in six starts and one relief appearance at the Great American Ballpark in his career.
Nick Lodolo takes the mound for the Reds. Lodolo is 1-0 with a 3.55 ERA over two starts against the Brew Crew. Overall, Lodolo is 4-7 with a 3.90 ERA. Recently, he has faced hard luck, going 1-2 despite a 2.84 ERA over four starts in September.
It is the last game of the season between the teams. The Brewers are 13-5 overall and 7-2 against the Reds at the Great American Ballpark. So far, the Brewers have averaged 6.67 runs in this series while allowing an average of two runs over three games.
Here are the Reds-Cubs MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Reds-Cubs Odds
Milwaukee Brewers: -1.5 (+104)
Cincinnati Reds: +1.5 (-125)
Over: 8 (-110)
Under: 8 (-110)
Why The Brewers Could Cover The Spread
The Brewers could not have asked for a better performance from their offense in this series. Amazingly, it is happening at a time when they need to get hot. Renfroe had a great game last night, going 4 for 5 with two home runs and four RBIs. Now, it raises his average to .253 with 27 home runs, 68 RBIs, and 58 runs. Rowdy Tellez went 2 for 4 with a home run and three runs. Tellez is hitting .273 (3 for 11) with a home run, an RBI, and five runs in this series.
The Brewers are punching their way on base and fixing a lineup that has not succeeded consistently this season. Currently, Milwaukee ranks 21st in batting average, ninth in on-base percentage, ninth in runs, third in home runs, and eighth in slugging percentage. Milwaukee’s ability to strike hard for several home runs helped their case last night.
Ultimately, the pitching has performed well. Starting pitchers and delivers have stopped the Reds in their tracks and clamped down on any comebacks.
The Brewers will cover the spread if their offense continues to fire on all cylinders. Also, Peralta must pitch well and last at least five innings with a solid effort.
Why The Reds Could Cover The Spread
Life has not been kind to the Reds. Yes, they are in a rebuilding year. Cincinnati expected these losses. However, they also are struggling under the circumstances and flopping toward the end.
The Reds do not have the luxury of a good offense, which has prevailed throughout this series. Their offense ranks 20th in batting average, 21st in on-base percentage, 22nd in runs, 19th in home runs, and 26th in slugging percentage. Likewise, the trend continues as their bats have mustered little run support to a team that needs it.
But the Reds also need better pitching. Yesterday, they allowed three home runs. It is not a good sign when the pitching staff leaves so many pitches hanging. Thus, Cincinnati must improve upon this and find a way to get outs.
The Reds will cover the spread if they get a good outing of their starter. Ideally, they would like a quality start with two or fewer runs allowed. Cincinnati also needs its bats to pop and generate some much-needed offense.
Final Brewers-Reds Prediction & Pick
The Brewers continue their push to the playoffs. Entering this game, they trail the Philadelphia Phillies by 1 1/2 games for the last wildcard spot. However, they also are alive in the division race and can make a late push. The Brewers and playing their best baseball at the right time. Expect them to cover the spread.
Final Brewers-Reds Prediction & Pick: Milwaukee Brewers: -1.5 (+104)