The St. Louis Cardinals will try to win the series with the Milwaukee Brewers as the NL Central rivals conclude their four-game set on Thursday. It's time to continue our MLB odds coverage with a Cardinals-Brewers prediction and pick.
The Cardinals defeated the Brewers 5-4 at Miller Park on Wednesday. St. Louis started fast in the first inning when Paul Goldschmidt smacked a two-run bomb to left field. It was his 17th in 2022 and gave the Cards a 2-0 lead. Then, the Brewers struck back in the bottom half of the inning when Rowdy Tellez whacked a solo shot to right field. It was his 11th in 2022 and cut the deficit to 2-1. Later, the Brewers trailed 3-1 in the fourth inning when Andrew McCutchen crushed a solo shot to left. It was his fifth in 2022 and brought it closer to 3-2. Next, the Brewers took the lead in the fifth inning on back-to-back RBI doubles by Christian Yelich and McCutchen.
The Cardinals answered back in the sixth when Nolan Arenado cracked a two-run home run to deep left-center field. The home run was his 14th in 2022 and gave the Cardinals the lead back. St. Louis never withered, holding it the rest of the way.
Adam Wainwright struggled for the Cards, allowing four earned runs on seven hits through 4 2/3 innings. However, the bullpen was solid, allowing no earned runs and no hits through the final 4 1/3 innings of work. Eric Lauer was okay for the Brewers, but his sixth-inning left him as the loser in this contest. He finished with a stat line of five earned runs on six hits through six innings. The Cardinals are 40-31, and in first place in the NL Central. Meanwhile, the Brewers are 39-32, just one game behind St. Louis in the same division.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Cardinals-Brewers odds:
MLB odds: Cardinals-Brewers Odds
Cardinals: +1.5 (-225) ML (-102)
Brewers: -1.5 (+180) ML (-116)
Over: 9.5 (-105)
Under: 9.5 (-115)
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Why The Cardinals Could Cover The Spread
The Cardinals have gone 6-5 against the Brewers in 2022. Additionally, they have gone 4-3 on the road. St. Louis will throw Dakota Hudson on the hill. Hudson is 5-3 with a 3.31 ERA. He tossed five innings in his last outing, allowing two earned runs on four hits while striking out three and walking five. Hudson had strung three consecutive games of seven-inning starts before this outing. Essentially, he must cut down on walks and not allow the other team to gain extra opportunities. Hudson is 0-1 with a 3.52 ERA in two starts against the Brewers in 2022. He lasted 4 2/3 innings in his last outing against Milwaukee but did not give up an earned run. His bullpen is solid as they rank 13th in the majors in team ERA.
The offense has been great this year for the Cardinals. They rank sixth in batting average, seventh in on-base percentage, run, 14th in home runs, and ninth in slugging percentage. Goldschmidt is their leader with 17 home runs and 60 RBIs. Likewise, Arenado has produced amazing numbers with 14 home runs and 48 RBIs. The Cards won last night because of these two, as four of the five RBIs came from those two bats.
The Cardinals need a good outing from their starters as the bullpen used two pitchers for long stretches last night. St. Louis will cover the spread if Hudson can give them five to six innings of quality baseball. The Cards also cover if Goldschmidt and Arenado continue their hot run and put the Cardinals' offense on their backs again.
Why The Brewers Could Cover The Spread
The Brewers are 5-6 against the Cardinals and just 3-4 at home. St. Louis has been their kryptonite and they must figure out how to counter. Jason Alexander will take the mound for the Brewers. Alexander is 1-0 with a 2.42 ERA. He tossed 5 2/3 innings in his last start, allowing three runs (two earned) on eight hits with two strikeouts and one walk. Alexander has hit seven innings one time this season and will try again to pitch deeper into the game. He has a solid bullpen behind him, as the Brewers rank 10th in bullpen ERA.
The offense has not been as hot. Milwaukee ranks 25th in batting average, 20th in on-base percentage, 12th in runs, and 14th in slugging percentage. The Brewers do rank fourth in home runs, so the long ball has not been an issue for them. They had two home runs yesterday, both solo shots.
The Brewers will cover the spread if they can get a good outing out of Alexander. Additionally, they must hit home runs with runners on base. Solo home runs will not cut it against the Cards.
Final Cardinals-Brewers Prediction & Pick
These teams battle it out all the time. The Cards have led the series so far. A day game can be unpredictable. Expect the Brewers to come out with some more fire as they try and earn the split. Picking the Brewers to win outright.
Final Cardinals-Brewers Prediction & Pick: Brewers ML (-116)
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