Despite being one of only three teams to win 100 games this season, the Los Angeles Dodgers must face the St. Louis Cardinals in an elimination game to start their title defense on Wednesday night. With the Dodgers looking to avoid a massive upset and the Cardinals aiming to continue to haunt L.A. postseason bettors dreams, let’s continue our MLB odds series and make a Cardinals-Dodgers prediction and pick for the NL Wild Card Game based on Cardinals Dodgers odds.
Los Angeles finished the regular season at 106-56 and is 58-23 at home. If you put $100 on every single Dodgers game so far this season, you’d be down $43 on the moneyline.
St. Louis closed the season at 90-72 and is 45-36 on the road. If you put $100 on every single Cardinals game so far this season, you’d be up $1,453 on the moneyline.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the Cardinals-Dodgers odds.
MLB Odds: Cardinals-Dodgers Odds
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St. Louis Cardinals ML (+200)
Los Angeles Dodgers ML (-220)
Over 7.5 Runs (-110)
Under 7.5 Runs (-110)
Why The Cardinals Could Win This Game
It seems like year after year, Adam Wainwright is pitching in a pivotal situation for the Cardinals. 2021 is no different as the veteran takes the ball for St. Louis with their postseason hopes on the line.
Despite being the second oldest starting pitcher in the league, Wainwright has been an absolute workhorse for the Cards. He threw 206.1 innings through 32 starts this year, finished with a 3.05 ERA, and St. Louis went 22-10 in his appearances. Factor this into your Cardinals Dodgers prediction.
Waino has excelled all season at keeping the ball in the yard, limiting walks, and eating up innings. All three will be important against one of the stronger offenses in baseball.
The veteran righty finished the season with a 0.92 HR/9, one of the lowest in baseball for any starter. Wainwright allowed no homers in half his starts, and only allowed multiple homers in four of his 32 outings. Additionally, with a BB/9 of 2.18 and a WHIP of 1.05, most of these blasts came with little to no traffic on base. This is a detail people will mention when making a Cardinals Dodgers pick.
Against the Dodgers, both these stats are extremely important. Los Angeles thrives off the long ball and finished with the fourth most homers in the league. They also displayed patience, walking the second most in the league. Thankfully for Cardinals bettors, Wainwright has shown the ability to counter both attributes. Look for the veteran to at the very least give the Cardinals a fighting chance against a stacked Dodgers lineup.
At the plate, St. Louis will have their hands full with Max Scherzer. The Cy Young candidate is a matchup few want to see, but the Cardinals should get a boost knowing how hot their offense is and how cold Scherzer has been. Factor this into your assessment of the Cardinals Dodgers odds.
The Cardinals have been the best team in baseball over the last 25 games of the season, and the bats have been a big reason why. In 15 of their last 25 games, the Redbirds scored at least five runs. They scored an absurd 97 runs over a 13 game span in mid September, torching quality pitching staffs in the Brewers and Padres along the way.
With a three-headed monster of Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, and Tyler O'Neill in the middle of the lineup, this Cards lineup is not to be underestimated, especially the way Scherzer has pitched of late.
In 28 starts this year, Scherzer had allowed five earned runs only one time. He did it twice to end the season, giving up five earned runs to both the Rockies in Colorado and the Padres in Los Angeles. His pitches appeared to be significantly flatter than in his first few starts with the Dodgers, and he only struck out 10 batters in his last 10.1 innings to end the season. He had struck out 78 in 59.0 innings prior.
If Scherzer comes out flat to start the game, this high-flying Cardinals lineup will jump all over him. The Dodgers have to hope that their ace's last two appearances were merely anomalies.
Why The Dodgers Could Win This Game
The Dodgers finished the season as the second best team in all of baseball, and they'll send arguably the best pitcher in the National League to make sure the season continues.
Max Scherzer has been lights out since coming from Washington: In 11 starts for L.A., he holds an ERA of 1.98 and has struck out 89 batters. The Dodgers have won every single game that Scherzer has started for them. This is a big fact to include in your Cardinals Dodgers prediction.
These number get even more crazy when you consider Scherzer was shelled in his last two starts. He was so dominant in his first nine starts as a Dodger that even two atrocious outings later, his ERA is still under 2.00.
Scherzer's strength is racking up swings and misses and avoiding hard hit balls. It's very difficult to barrel up Scherzer, and the Cardinals are unlikely to be the team that does it.
Of all the postseason teams, the Cardinals are the only ones to finish with a bottom ten hard hit ball percentage, finishing with only 37.4%. For reference, league average is 38.7%, and teams like the Tigers and the Mets finished above the Cards in this statistic. Note these details when considering a Cardinals Dodgers pick.
Additionally, the Cardinals were in the bottom half of the league in chase percentage (28%) and just slightly above league average in whiff percentage (25.3%). Scherzer is primed to at least bounce back with his strikeout numbers, which dropped in his last two starts. Expect plenty of Cardinals swing and misses, and a majority of St. Louis batters will have to work in pitchers counts.
At the plate, the Dodgers face an old foe in Adam Wainwright. Only a few Dodgers have multiple at-bats against Waino, but most of the ones that do have put up good numbers against him.
Trea Turner, Justin Turner, and A.J. Pollock are all batting above .300 against the Cardinals righty and have a combined 32 at-bats against him. No Dodger has struck out more then twice against Wainwright, indicating they see the ball fairly well against the ace. This is one dimension of the MLB odds for this game.
The last time the Dodgers faced Waino, he went 8.1 innings against them, but allowed four earned runs. The top of the Dodgers lineup did some serious damage, as all four players got a hit and three finished with multiple knocks. This is why the Cardinals Dodgers odds are the way they are.
The Dodgers clearly can do some damage to Wainwright. They need a little help towards the back end of their lineup, and losing Max Muncy hurts. However, L.A. has survived with depth all year. They should be able to push through for one more game on Wednesday.
Final Cardinals-Dodgers Prediction & Pick
The likelihood the Dodgers win this game is certainly better than the Cardinals, but this listed price is much too high for moneyline bettors. While I do think the Dodgers win, I am not prepared to lay on a -220 line against one of the hottest teams in baseball. Instead, the best bet here is on the total. Coming in to this game, both pitchers have looked extremely shaky. Despite their résumés, the best decision here is to fade Scherzer and Wainwright and back the red-hot bats behind them. Take the over.
FINAL CARDINALS-DODGERS PREDICTION & PICK: OVER 7.5 RUNS (-110)
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