The Cubs and Reds continue a three-game series in Cincinnati on Tuesday evening, with each club heading in a completely different direction. It's time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Cubs-Reds prediction and pick.
While the Reds are just 1 1/2 games out of a playoff spot, the Cubs have lost 12 games in a row and are tumbling toward last place in the division. This shouldn't be too much of a surprise, as the Cubs recently traded away most of their best players at the deadline, but it's a far cry from where experts predicted the Cubs to be at the beginning of 2021.
In the series opener, the Reds got out to a 12-0 lead after five innings, and ultimately won 14-5.
Here's how the bookmakers have set the Cubs-Reds odds and line for Tuesday's game.
MLB Odds: Cubs-Reds Odds
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Chicago Cubs +1 1/2 (-135)
Cincinnati Reds -1 1/2 (+115)
Over 9 1/2 runs (-109)
Under 9 1/2 runs (-111)
Why The Cubs Could Cover The Spread
Despite being in a freefall right now, the Cubs are actually 63-58 against the spread this season. Kyle Hendricks, the Cubs starting pitcher, struggling mightily in his last start vs. the Brewers, but in his previous start against the White Sox, he tossed a quality start with seven strikeouts. The last time Hendricks pitched in Cincinnati, he went six innings, allowing just one run on five hits. So despite his struggles as of late, there's some recent history to suggest he can find success at Great American Ballpark against a powerful Reds lineup.
After going down 12-0 quickly in yesterday's games, the Cubs battled back – somewhat – with a five run eighth inning. While they still ended losing the game. If they can carry that offensive momentum in to today's game, that might equate to a rare big day at the plate for a Cubs lineup that contains many new faces compared to just a month ago.
Why The Reds Could Cover The Spread
The Reds have gone 10-5 thus far in August, including 6-1 at home. They're getting hot at just the right time, and are back in contention for an NL playoff spot. We saw how well they performed against the Cubs in the series opener, and it should come as no surprise. The Reds, despite being out of a playoff spot right now, are still that much better than this depleted Cubs team.
Over his last three starts, Reds starting pitcher Vladimir Gutierrez has pitched 19.0 innings, posting a 1.42 ERA and tossing 16 strikeouts. He's allowed just one run in each of those past three starts, while going at least six innings deep in each contest. It's great news for him that he'll be facing a Cubs lineup which has scored three or less runs in a game on seven occasions just in the month of August.
As for the Reds offense, they've put up run totals of 11, 12, and 14 within their past ten games. Jonathan India, Nicholas Castellanos, and Joey Votto are three of the best hitters in baseball this season. Each of them had multiple base hits in the Reds route yesterday.
This game has all the makings of a huge Reds victory, as both their starting pitcher and lineup have been playing some of their best baseball in July and August.
Final Cubs-Reds Prediction & Pick
Given the nature of baseball, of course any team can lose on any given day. But this specific matchup has so much going in the Reds favor, that's its difficult to find any reason to pick the Cubs, especially with the minus money on their run line. I'd expect the Reds to come out strong yet again today, winning by a score of something like 9-2. It's been a tough second half for the Cubs, and unfortunately, it doesn't seem like today will yield a much better result. The plus money on the Reds run line is easily the better pick here.
FINAL CUBS-REDS PICK: Cincinnati Reds -1 1/2 (+115)
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