The Chicago Cubs take on the Arizona Diamondbacks. Check out our MLB odds series for our Cubs Diamondbacks prediction and pick.
Justin Steele gets the start for the Cubs, while Humberto Castellanos takes the bump for the D-Backs.
Justin Steele has a 5.32 ERA. He pitched into the fifth inning in each of his first two starts in the first half of April, but has not pitched into the fifth inning since then. He has failed to pitch into the fourth inning in three different starts. Hitters have figured him out after his first two promising starts in 2022. Steele has given up 23 hits and 11 walks in 18 innings. He is constantly under pressure and has plainly failed to keep opposing hitters off base. This is a big complication for the Cubs, who need to get five innings out of Steele so that their bullpen — which is very good — doesn't get overextended as the season continues. This is certainly something to think about when you make your Cubs Diamondbacks pick.
Humberto Castellanos has a 4.32 ERA. He has been a very up-and-down pitcher of late. He gave up five runs in two innings to the Cardinals in late April. He bounced back and shut out the Marlins in 5 2/3 innings on May 3. Then he allowed three runs to the Marlins in 5 1/3 innings on May 8. Getting a sense of which version of Castellanos shows up in this game should guide your Cubs Diamondbacks prediction based on the current MLB odds.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Cubs-Diamondbacks MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Cubs-Diamondbacks Odds
Chicago Cubs: +1.5 (-182)
Arizona Diamondbacks: -1.5 (+150)
Over: 9 (-105)
Under: 9 (-115)
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Why The Cubs Could Cover the Spread
The Cubs are feeling good about themselves after winning a tough, close ballgame Saturday night. The Cubs got to Arizona closer Mark Melancon and were able to win on a night when the Diamondbacks had one of their hottest starting pitchers, Zac Gallen, on the mound. It always feels especially good to stare down an in-form starting pitcher and get a road win. The Cubs don't have a great record, but they have competed extremely well on this West Coast road trip. They looked like a good team in San Diego against the Padres, and they now have a chance to win a series against an Arizona team which has frankly overachieved to start this 2022 season.
The Cubs also have to love the fact that they are going against Humberto Castellanos, who is clearly the weak link in the Arizona starting rotation. The Cubs were limited by Gallen on Saturday night. In this game, they should get better and more hittable pitches and should score several runs. This is part of the calculus when looking at the Cubs Diamondbacks odds.
Why The Diamondbacks Could Cover the Spread
After losing on Saturday, the D-Backs get a chance to reset. They are going against Justin Steele, who simply doesn't pitch deep into games. The Cubs do have a good bullpen, but that pen can't be stretched too thin, and there's a real risk it might happen on Sunday as Chicago plows ahead with a long Western road trip. The Diamondbacks' bats haven't really busted loose in this series. On Sunday, they just might.
The other thing about this matchup is that Arizona has clearly played better than Chicago this season. If you were to stop and ask yourself which team you would trust to win a series, you would probably go with Arizona. The Cubs' roster has been hollowed out and is nowhere near the standard set by previous teams on the North Side of Chicago.
Final Cubs-Diamondbacks Prediction & Pick
In what should be a high-scoring game involving two mediocre pitchers, the over is the best play.
Final Cubs-Diamondbacks Prediction & Pick: Over 9
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