The Chicago Cubs take on the San Diego Padres. Check out our MLB odds series for our Cubs Padres prediction and pick.
Wade Miley will start for the Cubs, while Mike Clevinger gets the start for the Padres.
There isn't too much to analyze in this pitching matchup. It's Wade Miley's first start of the season after dealing with left elbow inflammation. The well-traveled Miley will try to beef up the Cubs' starting rotation. This is his first go-round in 2022. We will see how he fares against San Diego.
The Padres go with Mike Clevinger, who is making just his second start of the season after dealing with injury troubles of his own. Clevinger was unremarkable in his first start, but it remains to be seen if that is rust or if there are larger mechanical (or other) problems in his return to action. It's impossible to say at this point. Both pitchers are question marks, and we just have to see what they'll do. This game should be measured by factors other than the pitching matchup. That's the simplest thing to say when making a Cubs Padres prediction based on the given MLB odds involved.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Cubs-Padres MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Cubs-Padres Odds
Chicago Cubs: +1.5 (-166)
San Diego Padres: -1.5 (+138)
Over: 7 (-114)
Under: 7 (-106)
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Why The Cubs Could Cover the Spread
The Padres have scored a run in only one of their last 30 innings. That seems impossible, but it's true. The Padres did not score in the final three innings of a Friday night win over the Marlins. Then they got shut out on Saturday. Then they were shut out for the first eight innings on Sunday. They got a three-run homer in the bottom of the ninth to win that game, marking the only inning in which they have scored in the past 30. They were shut out by the Cubs on Monday night. This team is going through a big power outage, and when everyone in the lineup is failing to get timely hits, it's not easy to pick that team. It's a lot easier to pick against that team.
It also has to be said that until he proves otherwise, Mike Clevinger shouldn't be assumed to be the pitcher he was before his injuries. No one should give Clevinger the benefit of the doubt just yet. It's too early to tell if he is a restored pitcher or not.
The Cubs are also getting a run and a half. They could lose the game 2-1 and still cover.
Why The Padres Could Cover the Spread
After their prolonged run-producing failures over the past three days in particular — with two shutout losses and a near third shutout loss prevented only by a dramatic bottom-of-the-ninth home run — one would figure that the Padres are due to bust out of this team-wide slump. It defies the odds to see a full team, especially one as talented as the Padres (with 19 wins on the season) suddenly stop hitting for three full games. Will this dry spell extend to a fourth game? Possible, but not probable. The odds say to go with the Padres and expect them to score at least four runs in this game (which is a separate bet but something for which you might get good value).
Final Cubs-Padres Prediction & Pick
If the Padres get shut out again, it would be a surprise. San Diego is a good bet to score at least four, maybe five, runs, in which case the Padres against the spread are a good pick. Let's add the over pick relative to the total.
Final Cubs-Padres Prediction & Pick: Padres -1.5, over 7
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