The Arizona Diamondbacks take on the San Francisco Giants on Tuesday night for the first game of a short two game series. It’s time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Diamondbacks-Giants prediction and pick.
San Francisco currently stands at 71-41 and is 35-17 at home. If you put $100 on every single Giants game so far this season, you’d be up $2,449 on the money line.
Arizona currently stands at 35-78 and is only 14-43 on the road. If you put $100 on every single Diamondbacks game so far this season, you’d be down $3,363 on the money line.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the Diamondbacks-Giants odds.
MLB Odds: Diamondbacks-Giants Odds
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Arizona Diamondbacks ML (+195)
San Francisco Giants ML (-215)
Over 8 Runs (-110)
Under 8 Runs (-110)
Why The Diamondbacks Could Win This Game
After dropping three straight series against NL West opponents, the Diamondbacks are looking to, at the very least, split this two game set against the best team in the league.
Considering Kevin Gausman is tomorrow's opposing pitcher, tonight is Arizona's best opportunity to steal a game. They'll get a shot at Giant's lefty Alex Wood, who has regressed significantly since his hot start to the season.
Wood didn't allow three earned runs in his first seven starts of the season. In his next 12, he's allowed 3+ earned in seven opportunities, including three of his last four starts.
The Diamondbacks have slugged lefties much better this year as a team, and their OPS shoots up a whopping 60 points against left-handers. Despite only taking 26% of their at-bats this year against southpaws, 34% of the D-Backs home runs have come against them. Expect Arizona to get a few runs off Wood before he exits.
Arizona sends Zac Gallen to the mound to counter Wood. Gallen has pitched to a 4.62 ERA this season in 13 starts.
The young righty actually faced the Giants in his last outing, allowing three earned in 5.2 innings in his best outing against them of the season.
One factor that should give D-Backs backers some hope tonight is Gallen's numbers against the Giants big bats. Buster Posey, Alex Dickerson, Brandon Crawford, Kris Bryant, and Wilmer Flores are a combined 3-of-38 against Gallen for a batting average of .078 and only one homer.
As long as Gallen avoids too many deep counts and keeps the bullpen off the field for as long as possible, Arizona's got a shot of the upset.
Why The Giants Could Win This Game
The list of why the Giants should win this game is a long one.
For one, the Diamondbacks have been unable to win away from Arizona. At 14-43 on the road, the D-Backs are gunning for one of the worst road records in MLB history.
Arizona hitters have been unable to connect on anything outside of Chase Field. The Diamondbacks are hitting just .215 on the road, and their OPS drops 70 points as soon as they step outside Arizona.
Wood has been a little shaky of late, but the Giants don't even need him to be perfect. If he can complete five innings without getting shelled and hand the ball to the bullpen, the Giants odds of winning this game are great.
San Francisco's bullpen has the third lowest ERA in the league, and the lowest WHIP and walks allowed. It's hard to imagine the D-Backs mounting a comeback if they go down more than a run past the sixth inning.
The Giants hitters should beat up on a familiar target in Zac Gallen.
Gallen has allowed three or more earned runs against the Giants in all three appearances against them this year. He completed only five innings in one of those outings.
If Gallen fails to complete five innings in this matchup, the D-backs are doomed. Their bullpen has both the highest ERA and WHIP in the major leagues, and the Giants will blow this game open quickly.
History shows that Gallen struggles to navigate the Giants lineup as a whole. The odds that he pitches a gem to keep Arizona in this tonight are fairly low.
Final Diamondbacks-Giants Prediction & Pick
The Giants probably win this game, but betting on a -215 favorite in baseball is never a comfortable endeavor. Instead, I'll play the over and expect the starters to continue to struggle in this matchup. Gallen has allowed 10 runs in 10.1 innings to the Giants, and Wood has allowed eight runs in 15 innings to the Diamondbacks. Even in cavernous Oracle Park, the Giants should do enough damage to Gallen to knock him fairly early and get at least three innings against Arizona's atrocious bullpen. The Diamondbacks should get two or three runs against Wood, and maybe one more against the Giants ‘pen. We should see a double-digit run total tonight.
FINAL DIAMONDBACKS-GIANTS PREDICTION & PICK: OVER 8 RUNS (-110)
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