The Los Angeles Dodgers take on the Milwaukee Brewers. Check out our MLB odds series for our Dodgers Brewers prediction and pick.
Julio Urias goes to the mound for the Dodgers, while Freddy Peralta gets the start for the Brewers.
Julio Urias is on a roll. He has a 2.49 ERA and is making the case that he is the best starting pitcher on the Dodger staff. Tony Gonsolin has an argument to make, but if you were to guess which man will get the ball in Game 1 of the playoffs, it has to be Urias if you're Dave Roberts. Urias is a horse. He's healthy, and he has shown in prior postseasons that he is up to the challenge. He had very bad start against the Cubs on July 10, his only bad start in a month and a half — he produced a brilliant month of June in which he pitched to a 2.20 ERA — and has responded to that one clunker with a steady stream of excellence. In his last five starts since he stepped on a rake versus the Cubs, Urias has pitched 33 innings and allowed just four runs. In his two August starts, Urias has pitched 13 innings and allowed only one run. He is locked in.
Freddy Peralta was out for more than two months with an injury. He was placed on the shelf after a May 22 start against the Nationals in which he allowed five runs in three innings. He rejoined the rotation on Aug. 3 and gave up two runs in an abbreviated (3 2/3-inning) outing versus the Pirates. He then went five innings on Aug. 9 and gave up two runs in a win over the Rays. Peralta, having pitched just 8 2/3 innings since his return to the team, has not pitched long enough to offer a strong indication of how well he will perform. The Brewers, trailing the Cardinals in the National League Central race, will need Peralta to be a stabilizing presence in the starting rotation over the next month and a half.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Dodgers-Brewers MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Dodgers-Brewers Odds
Los Angeles Dodgers: -1.5 (+100)
Milwaukee Brewers: +1.5 (-118)
Over: 7.5 (-120)
Under: 7.5 (-102)
Why The Dodgers Could Cover the Spread
Julio Urias is a top-tier pitcher in baseball. He keeps proving it. Clayton Kershaw is a legend of the game, but he isn't healthy. Tony Gonsolin made a run at the Cy Young Award earlier in the season. Urias, though, is the true rock in the Los Angeles rotation. He pitches against Freddy Peralta, who is unlikely to go deep into this game even if he pitches well. The Brewer bullpen got roughed up on Sunday in St. Louis and has shown signs of strain since the Josh Hader trade. Dodger pitching is in a much better position than Milwaukee pitching heading into this game. Moreover, the Dodgers — after getting shut out on Sunday in Kansas City — are likely to hit the ball well on Monday night.
Why The Brewers Could Cover the Spread
The Dodgers could bounce back from their loss to the Royals on Sunday, but a strange thing happens with the Dodgers at various points: When they stop hitting, that seems to last for a few games. Recall the Dodgers going 1-5 against the Pittsburgh Pirates this season, or losing a home series to the Nationals a few weeks ago. The Dodgers will go through a three- or four-game rut. This could be another one against a desperate Milwaukee team which has very little margin for error in its pursuit of a postseason game. The Brewers need this game a lot more than the Dodgers do.
Final Dodgers-Brewers Prediction & Pick
This could be a stay-away game, but Julio Urias makes it really hard to not bet on the Dodgers. Milwaukee could surprise him, but Urias has become such a trustworthy pitcher that a Dodger pick makes a lot of sense, especially against Freddy Peralta and not Corbin Burnes or Brandon Woodruff.
Final Dodgers-Brewers Prediction & Pick: Dodgers -1.5
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