The San Francisco Giants are set to host the Los Angeles Dodgers Monday in the first matchup of a four-game set at Oracle Park. With that said, it’s a good time to check out our MLB odds series, which includes our Dodgers-Giants prediction and pick we have laid out below.
San Francisco enters this game at 51-51 and is four games back of the Philadelphia Phillies for the National League's final Wild Card spot. The Giants are 3-7 in their last 10 contests, but they do enter their upcoming series on a two-game winning streak. Los Angeles has the best record in baseball at 68-33 with wins in seven of its last 10 games. The NL West division race seems to be a formality at this point, with the Dodgers leading the second-place San Diego Padres by 12 games.
Los Angeles leads the season series against the Giants, 6-3.
Here are the Dodgers-Giants MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Dodgers-Giants Odds
Los Angeles Dodgers: -1.5 (+116)
San Francisco Giants: +1.5 (-140)
Over: 8 (-110)
Under: 8 (-110)
Why The Dodgers Could Cover The Spread
In addition to the Dodgers' overall dominance over the Giants this year, their recent performance against San Francisco is even more impressive. Los Angeles started the second half with a four-game sweep of its hated NL West rival, outscoring them 25-13 with the closest game being decided by two runs. In fact, in the Dodgers' eight wins since the All-Star break, only one didn't cover a spread of 1.5 runs. They've lost only three contests in this 11-game stretch, while posting a plus-28 run differential.
Los Angeles leads the National League in runs scored, doubles, on-base percentage, slugging percentage and OPS this season, and maintained this pace during July. The Dodgers led the majors last month with an on-base percentage of .358, slugging percentage of .482, OPS of .840 and 60 doubles, all while leading the National League in batting average, runs scored and walks. Three Los Angeles players — first baseman Freddie Freeman, outfielder Mookie Betts and shortstop Trea Turner — ranked among the top 20 in MLB in OPS for July.
Dodgers starting pitcher Andrew Heaney has missed significant stretches of the season while dealing with shoulder inflammation, but he has been pitching the best baseball of his career this year when available. He has a 0.47 ERA and .147 opponent's batting average through four starts, with 27 strikeouts, 10 hits and one earned run allowed in 19 1/3 innings. Last week against the Washington Nationals, his first outing since June 19, he gave up just one hit while striking out four in four innings. There is some concern in both the lack of sample size and the fact that Heaney has only gone past the fifth inning once this season, but Los Angeles backers should feel confident given that the team's 3.30 bullpen ERA is the second-best in the National League.
Why The Giants Could Cover The Spread
While his ERA and opponent's batting average figures aren't quite as flashy as his counterpart's numbers, San Francisco starter Logan Webb provides plenty of optimism with the sustained success he has had this year. The NL Cy Young Award is Sandy Alcantara's to lose as the home stretch of the season gets underway, but Webb is still surprisingly in the mix, with his 70-to-1 odds being the 11th-lowest in the league. He has a 9-4 record and 2.91 ERA through 21 starts this season, with a 2.23 ERA over his last seven outings. This stretch includes an impressive showing in Los Angeles on July 22, when he allowed just one run in six innings. With an average of more than six innings pitched per appearance, including a one-run, eight-inning outing last month against the San Diego Padres, the Giants are less likely to have to lean heavily on a relief staff that ranks in the bottom five in baseball with a 4.41 bullpen ERA.
San Francisco took a slight step back last month, ranking 14th in MLB with 113 runs scored, but its production over the course of the season has been solid. They rank among the top 10 in baseball this year in runs scored, home runs, walks and on-base percentage. The Giants' top home run man, former Dodger Joc Pederson, is out with an injury, but Wilmer Flores, who leads the team with 55 RBI and 147 total bases, has two home runs, two doubles, four runs scored and a .261/.292/.609 slash line over the last six games.
Final Dodgers-Giants Prediction & Pick
Given Webb's productivity this season, the Giants at +0.5 (-130) on the first five innings run line is an appealing number. Their bullpen struggles, however, make it a risky play to take them over the course of a nine-inning game. Assuming Webb makes it through at least six innings, the under still has some value as long as it doesn't drop below eight.
Final Dodgers-Giants Prediction & Pick: Under 8 (-110)
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