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MLB Odds: Dodgers vs. Padres prediction, odds and pick – 9/11/2022

Dodgers Padres prediction

The Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres will finish their weekend series on Sunday afternoon in San Diego. With that said, it’s a good time to check out our MLB odds series, which includes a Dodgers-Padres prediction and pick, laid out below.

The rest of the regular season is merely a formality for Los Angeles, as the team owns baseball’s best record at 95-43. The Dodgers are 19 games ahead of the second-place Padres, basically having wrapped up the division with about a month to go in the regular season.

The Padres are second place in the NL West, with a 77-63 record, but hold the final NL Wild Card spot. The Wild Card race is much closer than the division, with San Diego holding a three-game lead over Milwaukee. New manager Bob Melvin has seemingly breathed some life into this ball club.

Here are the Dodgers-Padres MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

MLB Odds: Dodgers-Padres Odds

Los Angeles Dodgers: -1.5 (+116)

San Diego Padres: +1.5 (-140)

Over: 8.5 (-108)

Under: 8.5 (-112)

Why The Dodgers Could Cover The Spread

Los Angeles is sending Andrew Heaney to the mound in this one. Heaney has a 2.94 ERA in 11 starts, with 78 strikeouts in 52 innings and a 35.1 percent strikeout rate that ranks in the 97th percentile. This is by far the best season for Heaney, who struggled the last few years, especially in his time with the New York Yankees. Batters are hitting just .143 against Heaney’s slider, a pitch he throws 33 percent of the time. Los Angeles has altered Heaney’s pitch mix to great success, now featuring mainly a fastball and slider.

Los Angeles has the third-lowest bullpen ERA with a 3.06 mark, with 513 strikeouts in 482.2 innings pitched. Alex Vesia has pitched to a 2.36 ERA with 65 strikeouts in 45.2 innings. Evan Phillips, armed with a reworked slider, has pitched to a 1.35 ERA in 53.1 innings, including a 0.63 mark in his last 30 appearances.

Mookie Betts leads the team with 33 home runs, adding 32 doubles and 12 stolen bases. Freddie Freeman has been a great addition to an already strong lineup, with a team-leading 45 doubles, hitting .330 with 19 home runs and 90 RBIs. Trea Turner leads the team with 94 RBIs and 24 stolen bases, hitting .305. Justin Turner has hit .275, with 11 home runs, 33 doubles and 73 RBIs. Catcher Will Smith is second on the team with 21 home runs, adding 24 doubles and 81 RBIs.

As a team, Los Angeles is third in the league with a .216 batting average, fourth with 186 home runs, second with 289 walks and second with 518 walks.

Why The Padres Could Cover The Spread

San Diego has tabbed hometown hero Joe Musgrove as this afternoon’s starter. Musgrove has gone 9-6 with a 3.16 ERA and 152 strikeouts in 153.2 innings across 25 starts. The team rewarded Musgrove with a recent contract extension. Musgrove has walked just 5.3 percent of the batters he has faced, which ranks in the 87th percentile in the league. Against Musgrove’s four main pitches, batters have not hit higher than .229.

San Diego’s bullpen is 13th in the league with a 3.80 ERA on the season. Nick Martinez has spent the majority of the season in the bullpen, with 27 of his 37 appearances coming in relief. Martinez owns a 2.05 ERA out of the bullpen, walking just nine batters in 44 innings. Luis Garcia owns a 3.12 ERA with 57 strikeouts in 52 innings. Steven Wilson has been brilliant in his rookie campaign, with a 2.98 ERA, including a 2.04 mark in his last 15 appearances. Lefty submariner Tim Hill has continued to baffle opponents, with a 2.61 ERA across 47 appearances. Hill has not surrendered an earned run in 23 straight appearances.

San Diego’s offense did not receive the injection it anticipated from Josh Bell and Juan Soto. They have combined for just six home runs in 230 at-bats with the club. Manny Machado leads the team with a .303 batting average, 34 doubles, 28 home runs and 90 RBIs. Jake Cronenworth has belted 15 home runs and Jurickson Profar has added 14 home runs. Despite hitting .191, Trent Grisham is second on the team with 17 home runs.

San Diego is third in the league with 506 walks.

Final Dodgers-Padres Prediction & Pick

Los Angeles seems nearly unstoppable at this point.

Final Dodgers-Padres Prediction & Pick: Los Angeles -1.5 (+116), over 8.5 (-108)