MLB odds: Giants vs. Dodgers prediction, odds, pick, and more – 7/21/2021
The San Francisco Giants and Los Angeles Dodgers are deadlocked at one win apiece so far in this crucial NL West series. With two games remaining, it’s time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Giants-Dodgers prediction and pick.
San Francisco currently stands at 59-35 and is 21-17 when marked as underdogs. If you put $100 on every single Giants game so far this season, you’d be up $1,870 on the moneyline.
Los Angeles currently stands at 59-37 and is 59-34 when tabbed as favorites. If you put $100 on every single Dodgers game so far this season, you’d be down $491 on the moneyline.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the Giants-Dodgers odds.
MLB Odds: Giants-Dodgers Odds
San Francisco Giants ML (+139)
Los Angeles Dodgers ML (-151)
Over 8 Runs (-119)
Under 8 Runs (-101)
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Why The Giants Could Win This Game
The Giants will need to bounce back after a heartbreaking loss on Tuesday night. They blew 6-2 lead to the Dodgers and lost it in the ninth. They will send Logan Webb to the mound to rally them.
Webb is a pitcher who doesn’t light up the radar gun, but mixes a sinker, changeup, and slider to effectively navigate the order. He has pitched to a 3.54 ERA this season and racked up 60 strikeouts in only 56 innings pitched.
The righty has been extremely effective for the Giants of late, giving up no more than one earned run in any of his last five starts. More importantly for Webb, he has only walked four guys in these starts.
Webb’s last appearance at Dodger Stadium was a gem. He pitched five innings, allowed only one earned run, and struck out seven Dodgers en route to a Giants win. The heart of the Los Angeles order has batted poorly against Webb, with Mookie Betts, Max Muncy, and Cody Bellinger combining for only four hits in 20 at bats.
Considering this Dodgers lineup is currently battered with nagging injuries (Betts hasn’t started in the last three games, while both Justin Turner and Muncy exited the game early Tuesday), we can expect a solid performance from Webb in this one.
At the plate, the Giants have battered the Dodgers this series. San Francisco has 19 hits and 13 runs in the first two games, and these hitters get a shot to continue the onslaught against a pitcher they’ve fared well against.
In two appearances against the Giants this year, Julio Urias has given up eight earned runs in 11.0 innings. Five Giants have at least eight plate appearances against Urias, and four of them are batting .300 or better against the lefty.
Look for the Giants to do some damage early against the lefty and get into a Dodgers bullpen that has pitched 9 2/3 innings in the last two days.
Why The Dodgers Could Win This Game
The Dodgers enter this game riding a wave of momentum that comes from their most important win of their season so far.
Will Smith clubbed a walk-off three-run shot to shock the Giants and keep the Dodgers’ NL West deficit to only one game. Now, the boys in blue send one of their more consistent pitchers to the mound to keep the ball rolling.
Urias has pitched at least five innings in all but one of his 19 starts, and he has gone six innings or more in 10 of 19. On a day the Dodgers badly need some length out of their starting pitcher, Urias is the man to turn to on the mound
The lefty has pitched twice against the Giants this year, and the results were night and day. Urias pitched six innings in San Francisco, struck out t10, and only allowed two earned runs. He was shelled in Los Angeles, giving up six earned to the Giants but still completing five innings.
Urias’ track record suggests that we’re more likely to see a repeat of his outing in San Francisco. He has a low walk rate (24 free passes in 112.0 innings this year), which should nicely combat the Giants’ patience at the plate. San Franciso’s slugging percentage is also 20 points lower against lefties, which makes it unlikely San Francisco blasts Urias out of the game early with extra base hits.
Overall, there’s a great shot we see the Dodgers starter give his team some length in this game.
Los Angeles is waiting to hear about the availability of a few of their All-Stars, with Justin Turner and Max Muncy still questionable to play.
Even with two big bats potentially out, the Dodgers have flexed their depth all year. Matt Beaty and Zach McKinstry have done admirable jobs in replacement roles, and Los Angeles still has plenty of danger in the lineup with Chris Taylor, Cody Bellinger, and Smith available.
Smith has been particularly effective of late, batting .500 since we resumed play after the All-Star break. Smith has 10 RBI in 15 plate appearances since the break, and it’s a good bet he adds more.
Final Giants-Dodgers Prediction & Pick
Both of these teams have been heavily reliant on their bullpens so far in this series. This game will rely on which team can get more depth off their starter, and the Dodgers hold the advantage there. Urias has been a workhorse, and I expect him to get at minimum five innings, and probably a little more. I can’t say the same for Logan Webb. I’ll take my chances that the Dodgers run with the momentum and get into a demoralized and tired Giants bullpen early.
FINAL GIANTS-DODGERS PREDICTION: LOS ANGELES DODGERS ML (-151)