After a thrilling first game of the series, the San Francisco Giants and San Diego Padres meet for Game 2 of the three game set on Wednesday evening. As the Giants creep closer to 100 wins and the Padres struggle to survive in the postseason race, let’s continue our MLB odds series and make a Giants-Padres prediction and pick.
San Diego currently stands at 76-74 and is 44-32 at home. If you put $100 on every single Padres game so far this season, you’d be down $2,191 on the moneyline.
San Francisco currently stands at 98-53 and is 49-27 on the road. If you put $100 on every single Giants game so far this season, you’d be up $3,226 on the moneyline.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the Giants-Padres odds.
MLB Odds: Giants-Padres Odds
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San Francisco Giants ML (+100)
San Diego Padres ML (-110)
Over 9.5 Runs (-105)
Under 9.5 Runs (-115)
Why The Giants Could Win This Game
The biggest advantage the Giants have in this series is the strength of their lineup, and it showed yesterday in the series opener. Down 4-1, San Francisco stormed back against a quality pitcher in Joe Musgrove to tie the game and then win it late.
Seeing what Gabe Kapler’s guys did to the Padres best pitcher this year raises some serious concerns for Vince Velasquez, who has been throwing meatballs on the mound all year.
Velasquez currently holds an ERA of 6.09, and the Giants are primed to take advantage of his biggest weaknesses: the walk and the home run ball.
The righty has been destroyed by top OPS teams all year. In 18.1 innings against teams that rank top ten in OPS, Velasquez has allowed eight home runs and 16 walks. The Giants have the fourth-highest OPS in the league, the second-most home runs, and the third-most walks. This is shaping up to be a quick exit for a pitcher that has allowed four or more earned runs in six of his last eight starts.
On their end, the Giants are sending Scott Kazmir to the mound. Kazmir has only pitched three times this season, and last started nearly four months ago.
In seven innings of work this year, Kazmir has allowed five earned runs. We can cut him a little bit of a break since all seven innings pitched came against either the Dodgers or the pre-sell-off Cubs.
Realistically, the Giants need Kazmir to go three innings. Even if he does allow three earned, he can hand the ball to the best bullpen in baseball (lowest WHIP and ERA in the league). The Giants lineup should keep them in this game barring an absolute meltdown from Kazmir.
Why The Padres Could Win This Game
In terms of the battle of the starters, if either of these guys can get to the five-inning mark with three earned runs it’ll be deemed a hugely successful outing. Of the two, Velasquez is more likely to complete this feat.
Kazmir has pitched a total of seven innings in the last five years. He is a complete question mark in every term, and it’s certainly possible the Padres offense jumps all over him in the first one or two innings, as the Dodgers and Cubs have done.
The San Diego offense has shelled left-handers of late, and a soft-tossing lefty like Kazmir is a prime target. In the last 15 innings they’ve faced a left-hander, the Padres have scored 13 earned runs. It’s unlikely that Kazmir breaks the trend against a Padres lineup which, despite the loss last night, looked extremely sharp.
It’s up to Vince Velasquez to avoid getting knocked out of the game prematurely to keep San Diego in the game. Velazquez has completed at least four innings in seven of his last ten matchups, and that might be all the Padres ask of him tonight.
The Giants bullpen is good, but the Padres pen is nearly just as elite. San Diego’s reserve arms are rested and ready, having gone only three innings last night. Despite the loss, Mark Melancon threw only 14 pitches and will certainly be ready to make up for Tuesday’s mistake if the Padres find themselves with a late-inning lead.
This game will be a shootout, but the Padres bullpen is ready to come in and cool off the flames.
Final Giants-Padres Prediction & Pick
On Tuesday, we cashed by playing the over in the first game of the series. Today, we’re going back to the well. Vince Velazquez has an ERA of 11.63 in the last two months, and Kazmir is a massive question mark. Because these bullpens are both excellent, avoid playing the full game over. Instead, take the total on the first five innings and rely on both starters to get roughed up early. The first half over is set at five runs can be found at most books for -120. It’d be surprising to see either of these teams finish below three runs by the time the first five innings are up. Play the first half over.
FINAL GIANTS-PADRES PREDICTION: F5 OVER 5 RUNS (-120)
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