The Cleveland Guardians will face the Houston Astros on Tuesday night. It's time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Guardians-Astros prediction and pick.
These two teams have had vastly different seasons. The Guardians have been the definition of mediocre, going 18-20 to begin the season. Cleveland doesn't have a whole lot to be excited about, as the mediocrity will likely last the season.
The Astros, on the other hand, have been one of the best teams in MLB. Their 27-16 record speaks for itself. In addition to their record, Houston has only lost one of its last five series.
Despite all of this, the Guardians managed to steal the series opener on Monday night by a score of 6-1. The Astros will look to even things up in what should be an entertaining contest.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Guardians-Astros MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Guardians-Astros Odds
Cleveland Guardians: +1.5 (-115)
Houston Astros: -1.5 (-104)
Over: 8 (-115)
Under: 8 (-105)
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Why The Guardians Could Cover The Spread
The Guardians will face Houston starter Framber Valdez in this contest. At first glance, Valdez's numbers are among the better ones in MLB. However, his recent starts haven't been quite as good as his appearances at the start of the season. Over his last seven starts, Valdez has posted a 1.39 WHIP, a number that is far below average. Strangely enough, Valdez has also been significantly worse when he pitches at home. His ERA jumps from 1.52 on the road to 4.67 on his home turf. Valdez also allows opposing hitters to hit a whopping .329 in Minute Maid Park. Overall, this looks like an exploitable matchup for the Guardians, as it's an exploitable matchup for most MLB teams.
Surprisingly, this Cleveland offense has actually been better when playing on the road. The Guardians earn a higher batting average, slugging percentage, and OPS whenever they play away from home. They've also been on a bit of an offensive hot streak. “Streak” may be too strong of a word, but the Guardians have scored six runs in two of their last three games. Now their hot bats will enter a favorable overall matchup.
Why The Astros Could Cover The Spread
Houston also has a favorable matchup in this one. Cleveland will send out Zach Plesac to start for them, something that has seldom worked out well this season. Plesac is currently the owner of a 4.42 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP. Even worse are the righty's numbers when he pitches on the road. Plesac owns a solid 3.52 ERA at home, but that skyrockets all the way to 5.74 whenever he pitches anywhere but Progressive Field. The Astros also hit right-handed pitching better than they do left-handed pitching. Houston scores a higher batting average, OBP, OPS, and slugging percentage against righties.
Even with Valdez's struggles at home, the Astros should benefit from playing on their home field. Houston is 12-8 in Minute Maid Park, including a stretch of seven consecutive victories. Unsurprisingly, the Guardians have a losing record on the road, so this is shaping up to be a pretty solid matchup for Houston.
Final Guardians-Astros Prediction & Pick
Neither side of the spread is particularly appealing. Instead, the over is the best pick on the board. There's good reason to believe the Guardians can ding up Valdez, and Plesac should get absolutely shelled.
Final Guardians-Astros Prediction & Pick: Over: 8 (-115)
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