The Cleveland Guardians take on the Minnesota Twins. Check out our MLB odds series for our Guardians Twins prediction and pick.
Triston McKenzie goes to the mound for the Guardians, while Chris Archer takes the ball for the Twins.
Triston McKenzie has a 3.18 ERA and has been a strong, reliable member of the Cleveland rotation this season. McKenzie has not allowed more than three earned runs in a start since Aug. 2. He is regularly getting into the sixth or seventh inning with two or three runs allowed, giving his team a very good chance to win. He has certainly been steady. His consistency is something the Guardians really appreciate. That said, McKenzie can dominate hitters at times. In a big game such as this, with Cleveland trying to fend off both the Twins and the Chicago White Sox in the tightly-bunched American League Central, the Guardians can use a dominant outing by McKenzie to rest their bullpen for the other games in which they will need more innings. The Guardians have lost pitchers Zach Plesac and Aaron Civale. McKenzie needs to go at least seven innings so that the pen can be fresher for future games with lower-end starters in the rotation.
Chris Archer has a 4.47 ERA. What stands out about his season is that he has not recorded more than 15 outs — five full innings — in any of his starts. This has put a strain on an overworked Minnesota bullpen, and that has caught up with the Twins this year. If Archer is not going to give length to the Twins' rotation, he needs to at least pitch to a lower ERA, but he has failed to do so. If he pitches five innings, he needs to limit the opposition to one run (or none). How many times has he done that in his last 10 starts? Once. He gave up one run in another start, but he didn't pitch five full innings in that outing. He really needs to do better down the stretch.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Guardians-Twins MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Guardians-Twins Odds
Cleveland Guardians: -1.5 (+134)
Minnesota Twins: +1.5 (-162)
Over: 7.5 (-106)
Under: 7.5 (-114)
Why The Guardians Could Cover the Spread
Triston McKenzie is a better pitcher than Chris Archer, and the Guardians have gotten more out of their talent and resources than the Twins have this season. Cleveland's big win on Friday sent a big statement in this series, giving the Guardians confidence after one of their rougher stretches of play this season. The Twins have a team which is capable of performing well, but in crunch time, which team is more trustworthy? The Guardians have clearly come closer to fulfilling their potential in 2022.
Why The Twins Could Cover the Spread
It's put-up-or-shut-up time for Minnesota. The Twins lost the first game of a series they need to win. They have to bounce back with wins today and Sunday. They have to win home games against their chief divisional competitors. While Triston McKenzie is a very good pitcher, he has not been airtight in recent games. Minnesota can get this game into the sixth inning tied. It can win innings six through eight and grab a lead before Cleveland can send closer Emmanuel Clase to the mound in the ninth.
Final Guardians-Twins Prediction & Pick
McKenzie is better than Archer. That's what it boils down to. Don't overthink this one.
Final Guardians-Twins Prediction & Pick: Guardians -1.5
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