MLB odds: Mariners vs. Athletics prediction, odds, pick, and more – 9/20/2021
The Seattle Mariners and Oakland Athletics begin a four-game series as both teams desperately race for a Wild Card spot. Let’s continue our MLB odds series, make a Mariners-Athletics prediction, and pick in the AL West clash.
Oakland currently stands at 82-67 and is 40-34 at home. If you put $100 on every single Athletics game so far this season, you’d be up $48 on the moneyline.
Seattle currently stands at 80-69 and is 38-36 on the road. If you put $100 on every single Mariners game so far this season, you’d be up $2,669 on the moneyline.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the Mariners-Athletics odds.
MLB Odds: Mariners-Athletics Odds
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Seattle Mariners ML (+155)
Oakland Athletics ML (-165)
Over 8 Runs (-110)
Under 8 Runs (-110)
Why The Mariners Could Win This Game
Since coming over to the Mariners from the Pirates, Tyler Anderson has been a solid piece in the Seattle rotation.
In nine starts in a Mariners jersey, Anderson has pitched to a 3.67 ERA and struck out 39 batters over 49 innings.
Anderson’s biggest strength has been his ability to keep Seattle in important games. The lefty has allowed more than three earned runs in only one of his nine Seattle starts. In two games against teams above Seattle in the Wild Card standings (Yankees and Red Sox), Anderson has pitched 9.1 innings and allowed only three earned runs.
This Athletics lineup is not bad offensively, but they are very average. The A’s rank in the league’s bottom half in batting average and OPS, and Anderson should post a usual line of around five innings pitched with a few runs allowed.
The key for Seattle is getting to Sean Manaea tonight. Manaea is in the midst of his worst six-game stretch of the season.
The A’s lefty has allowed five or more earned runs in three of his last six appearances, has failed to reach the five-inning mark twice and holds an ERA of 6.00 over the span.
The biggest problem for Manaea lately has been the long ball. In his last 33 innings, he’s allowed a whopping nine home runs.
This is a major problem against a Mariners team that is relatively light-hitting. Seattle doesn’t string together hits, but they’ve hit the 13th most home runs in the league and have several righty hitters with pop that could give Manaea problems tonight.
If Manaea makes a few mistakes over the plate, it might be all the Mariners need. You don’t want a tight contest if you’re a Mariners opponent as they’re an eyebrow-raising 32-17 in games decided by one run.
If Seattle can jump on Manaea and take an early lead using the long ball, it’ll be a long uphill battle for Oakland with the numbers decidedly against them.
Why The Athletics Could Win This Game
This Athletics lineup has been better against left-handed starters all year, and they’ve showed it in their last outings. In their last five matchups against lefty starters, the A’s have scored 18 earned runs in only 22.2 innings.
This isn’t a surprising outcome. Oakland has slugged southpaws significantly better than righties, and their team OPS raises twenty points when a lefty is on the mound.
All this bodes poorly for Tyler Anderson. Add in the fact that he’s a pitcher who relies on the strikeout and facing a team that K’s up at the seventh-lowest rate in the league, and we should see plenty of barreled balls in the first few innings from Oakland’s lineup.
Things look promising for the A’s bats, but their most significant advantage is on the mound tonight. Even though Sean Manaea has pitched poorly of late, a Mariners lineup that he’s dominated this year might be just the thing to get him right.
Manaea has faced Seattle twice this year. The first time, he threw a complete-game shutout with eight strikeouts. The following matchup, he pitched seven innings, allowed one earned run and struck out 13 Mariners in the process. Most importantly, he allowed just one solo shot in 16 innings against Seattle.
The Mariners’ best hope to win tonight is to sting Manaea with the long ball, but their lineup has proven incapable of doing that. Seattle’s current roster has 97 at-bats against Manaea, and they’ve homered only twice off him.
It’d be a surprise to see Seattle shell the lefty tonight, especially considering their previous at-bats against him.
Final Mariners-Athletics Prediction & Pick
Overall, the Athletics have too many advantages tonight to bet against them. Manaea has looked nearly unhittable against Seattle, the Mariners are on the road where their offensive numbers take a dip. Oakland has a prime matchup against a soft-tossing lefty, who they have crushed of late. Count on Manaea to bounce back in Oakland as the A’s put some distance between the Mariners in the playoff race.
FINAL MARINERS-ATHLETICS PREDICTION: OAKLAND ATHLETICS ML (-165)