The Seattle Mariners take on the Texas Rangers. Check out our MLB odds series for our Mariners Rangers prediction and pick.
Logan Gilbert takes the bump for the Mariners, while Dane Dunning goes to the hill for the Rangers.
Logan Gilbert has a 2.29 ERA. He has an electric arm and lights-out stuff. One of his central challenges has been to trust his stuff and keep it close enough to the plate that hitters will swing. He is sometimes wild to the point that hitters are able to lay off his pitches and either draw walks or wait him out for a cookie on a hitter's count such as 3-1 or 2-0. When Gilbert locates his pitches and isn't wild, he is very hard to deal with. He gave up a total of just three runs in his first five starts of the year, which accounted for 28 innings. Then he ran into problems in a series of four straight starts in which he gave up 14 runs. In his most recent outing, however, the April version of Gilbert reappeared. He went seven innings and didn't give up a run to the Astros. Crucially, he didn't walk a single batter. When he commands the strike zone, he's a beast. That start against Houston on Saturday was the first time a Mariner had pitched at least seven shutout innings in any start in 2022. Gilbert came close to that on April 20 when he blanked Texas for 6 2/3 innings. This is one key part of a Mariners Rangers prediction in relationship to the MLB odds.
Dane Dunning has a 4.31 ERA. His season can be divided into three sequences. He started the year by giving up eight runs in 12 2/3 innings in three starts. Then he gave up four runs in 19 1/3 innings in his next three starts, a dramatic improvement. In his last four starts, Dunning has largely struggled, pitching 22 1/3 innings and giving up 15 runs. Dunning has gone through three multi-start cycles in which he will pitch at a given level and then display a decidedly different level of effectiveness in the next cluster of starts. This kind of profile makes it harder to calibrate a Mariners Rangers pick.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Mariners-Rangers MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Mariners-Rangers Odds
Seattle Mariners: -1.5 (+150)
Texas Rangers: +1.5 (-182)
Over: 8 (-105)
Under: 8 (-115)
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Why The Mariners Could Cover the Spread
The Mariners just won their second road series of the season by winning a rubber match in Baltimore against the Orioles on Thursday. Seattle has been an atrocious team away from home, but Thursday might have marked a real turnaround for this club. Seattle has begun to show signs of a revival after a 6-19 stretch in which the Mariners wiped away all the good work they did in their 11-6 start to the season. The Mariners won a series from the Astros last weekend in Seattle, then carried that momentum into Baltimore. This team is getting more aggressive at the plate, attacking hittable first pitches and looking for cookies from opposing pitchers who think they can throw “get me over” strike ones. Logan Gilbert has been good for Seattle. The Mariners have to feel confident about having him on the bump in this game.
Why The Rangers Could Cover the Spread
After splitting with the Rays, the Rangers know they can go toe to toe with an American League contender. The Rangers continue to get solid pitching, and now they know that Marcus Semien can still hit. The star infielder was shockingly bad for the first month and a half of the season, but he is finally mashing the baseball. If Semien can continue to hit, this team is hard to beat.
Final Mariners-Rangers Prediction & Pick
The Mariners might be improving, but they need to do more than win one series in Baltimore to earn real trust. This is frankly a stay-away game for that reason. If you insist on betting, take the Rangers plus a run and a half.
Final Mariners-Rangers Prediction & Pick: Rangers +1.5
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