The Seattle Mariners will try to bounce back as they face the Boston Red Sox in an afternoon thriller at Fenway Park on Saturday. It's time to continue our MLB odds coverage with a Mariners-Red Sox prediction and pick.
The Red Sox defeated the Mariners 7-3 on Friday night. There was no score in the third inning when Trevor Story approached the plate with the bases loaded. Then, Story clobbered a 1-2 pitch over the Green Monster in left field for a grand slam home run. It was his sixth in 2022, and his fourth over two nights. Then, the Mariners struck back in the fifth when Abraham Toro slugged a two-run shot to right field to cut the deficit to 4-2. The Mariners inched closer in the eighth when Jesse Winkler clipped an RBI single. Ultimately, the Sox put it away when Jackie Bradley Jr. slammed a three-run home run to seal the deal in the eighth.
2021 Cy Young winner Robbie Ray tossed six innings, allowing four earned runs on five hits, the grand slam being the only tally. Additionally, he had limited run support as the Mariners eventually left six runners on base.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Mariners-Red Sox MLB odds:
MLB Odds: Mariners-Red Sox Odds
Mariners: +1.5 (-142)
Red Sox: -1.5 (+118)
Over: 9 (-122)
Under: 9 (+100)
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Why The Mariners Could Cover The Spread
Seattle will go with Chris Flexen on the mound. He is 1-6 with a 4.35 ERA. These stats are way below his 14-6 and 3.61 ERA mark that he put up in 2o21. Now, Flexen looks to find that spark and recover his winning ways. He tossed 5 1/3 innings, allowing three earned runs and six hits in his last start. Also, Flexen has not won a start since April 20. He will need some offensive support from a lineup that has performed inconsistently.
The Mariners are 18th in batting average, ninth in on-base percentage, 20th in runs, ninth in home runs, and 18th in slugging percentage. Seattle does not hit the ball often but manages to get on base. Additionally, they deliver on the long balls and have multiple players leading them in this category.
Eugenio Suarez has seven home runs, Tyler France has six, and Toro has contributed six. All three are on pace for a 25-30 home run season, which would help the Mariners greatly as they attempt to climb back into the wildcard race. Seattle needs all three to capitalize on opportunities.
The Mariners will cover the spread if they can get a quality start from Flexen. Additionally, the Mariners have to get to Garrett Whitlock early and prevent him from getting into a groove. Seattle does better when they score first so getting the first runs could determine whether they cover.
Why The Red Sox Could Cover The Spread
Boston will go with Whitlock on the hill. Whitlock is 1-1 with a 2.43 ERA. He has been a utility pitcher for the Red Sox, as he has started and thrown out of the bullpen. He tossed five innings, allowing two earned runs on three hits in his last start. However, Whitlock has allowed at least one home run in each game over his last three appearances. He also has walked six batters over two games. Also, Whitlock gets support from an offense that is on fire recently.
The Red Sox have scored 53 runs over eight games. Boston is 12th in batting average, 21st in on-base percentage, and 16th in runs scored. Story has six home runs with 27 RBIs in 2022. Likewise, Rafael Devers has contributed seven home runs with 21 RBIs while J.D. Martinez has added five home runs with 20 RBIs. Additionally, the Sox have Xander Bogaerts, who is hitting .326 with four home runs and 16 RBIs and is always a threat to get on base.
The Red Sox will cover the spread if they get a good performance from Whitlock. Additionally, Boston covers if Devers, Martinez, Bogaerts, and the rest of the hot lineup keep the momentum and drive in runs.
Final Mariners-Red Sox Prediction & Pick
The Red Sox have bounced the Mariners soundly over the past two games, winning 12-6 and 7-3. However, the Red Sox are not exactly a dominating team and are throwing out a starter that is prone to home runs. Boston has won or tied their past six series with Seattle and is attempting to win this series. However, the Mariners have the pieces to give the Red Sox trouble. Expect the Mariners to keep this game tight, and maybe even sneak out a win. Seattle will cover the spread.
Final Mariners-Red Sox Prediction & Pick: Mariners +1.5 (-142)
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