The Seattle Mariners take on the Boston Red Sox. Check out our MLB odds series for our Mariners Red Sox prediction and pick.
Robbie Ray gets the start for the Mariners, while Michael Wacha returns to Boston's starting rotation in this game.
Robbie Ray has a 4.62 ERA. The 2021 American League Cy Young Award winner with the Toronto Blue Jays has had a very disappointing start to his 2022 season with the Mariners. In his eight outings, he has allowed three or more runs in four starts. He has allowed fewer than two runs in only one of those eight starts. He isn't giving Seattle the dominant pitching he usuall provided Toronto a year ago. This is part of the calculus in a Mariners Red Sox prediction.
If you look closely at each game Ray has pitched this year, you will notice that he has posted a number of scoreless innings in each start, but he then runs into a really bad inning he can't dig out of. Four scoreless innings and then one three-run inning creates a mediocre pitching line with numbers the Mariners didn't expect when they made the commitment to an ace-level pitcher in the offseason. Ray has not given Seattle the dominance or reliability from a No. 1 starter. It's one of several reasons why the Mariners are below .500 and have been one of the most disappointing teams in the majors through a month and a half of play.
Michael Wacha has a 1.38 ERA. He has been fantastic for the Red Sox this season, giving up just four runs in 20 1/3 innings pitched. Wacha has allowed just two home runs in those 20 1/3 innings, both solo shots. He has allowed only two non-homer runs this season, which is an eye-popping fact. The key word of caution to mention for Wacha is that he hasn't pitched since May 3 against the Angels. He has had some soreness and irritation in his left side. Will his momentum be interrupted, or will he immediately pick up where he left off? That's a central question to consider when making your Mariners Red Sox pick.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Mariners-Red Sox MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Mariners-Red Sox Odds
Seattle Mariners: +1.5 (-205)
Boston Red Sox: -1.5 (+168)
Over: 9 (-106)
Under: 9 (-114)
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Why The Mariners Could Cover the Spread
The Mariners are going to play better at some point. Their season has been a colossal disappointment thus far, but we have seen plenty of examples over the years of teams which stink in the first month and a half and then get going right around Memorial Day and change the trajectory of their season. The Mariners' rival in the American League West, the Oakland Athletics, have done this a number of times in recent years. Last year, the New York Yankees were not very good after two and a half months, but they caught fire in the summer and put together a huge winning binge. The Atlanta Braves, of course, didn't climb above .500 until August and were able to make the playoffs and win the World Series. The St. Louis Cardinals were medicore for five months and then stopped losing in September. Teams with talent generally show up at some point, and the Mariners are too talented to keep messing around.
Why The Red Sox Could Cover the Spread
After being down by four runs on Thursday, the Red Sox — enduring their own miserable season — could have packed it in. Instead, they rallied and hammered the Mariners. Boston's hitting was improbably and pervasively atrocious through the first week of May. In the past week and a half, the bats have finally come alive and this team looks competitive once again. Thursday's huge offensive explosion gives this team a chance to carry some momentum into this game and the rest of the weekend series against Seattle.
Final Mariners-Red Sox Prediction & Pick
Robbie Ray doesn't deserve the benefit of the doubt right now, and Michael Wacha does. That's the bottom line. Wacha might be rusty coming off an injury, but if he's starting, one should assume he is healthy enough to pitch. He has been noticeably better than Robbie Ray in 2022.
Final Mariners-Red Sox Prediction & Pick: Red Sox -1.5
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