The Miami Marlins will finish a four-game series with the Milwaukee Brewers as the teams meet at Miller Park on Sunday. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Marlins-Brewers prediction and pick.
The Marlins rallied to defeat the Brewers 4-3 on Saturday and now can take the series today. Miami struck early when Peyton Burdick slammed a two-run bomb to center field. It was his third of the year, giving the Marlins a 2-0 lead. Later, Christian Yelich slugged a shut to left field for a solo home run. It was his 13th in 2022, cutting the deficit to 2-1. The Brewers added two runs in the sixth and headed into the ninth leading 3-2. However, things unraveled quickly.
Bryan De La Cruz lined a single to left field. Unfortunately, Yelich muffed the hit, and the ball went past him. It allowed the Marlins to score two runs to take the lead for good. Also, it was the second time in this series the Brewers blew a lead in the eighth inning or later.
Pablo Lopez will take the mound for the Marlins today with the hope of leading his team to victory. Lopez is 10-10 with a 3.90 ERA in 2022. Recently, he went six innings while allowing three earned runs on five hits, including a home run. Lopez has allowed four home runs over his previous five starts. Additionally, he is 2-2 with a 5.33 ERA over five starts in September.
The Brewers will send Freddy Peralta to the hill. Peralta is 4-4 with a 3.77 ERA. He lasted only 1 2/3 innings recently while allowing four earned runs on three hits with three strikeouts and one walk. Peralta went 0-1 with a 6.35 ERA last month as he worked his way back from an injury.
The season series is tied 3-3. Thus, the winner of this showdown will take the season series.
Here are the Marlins-Brewers MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Marlins-Brewers Odds
Miami Marlins: +1.5 (-160)
Milwaukee Brewers: -1.5 (+132)
Over: 7 (-122)
Under: 7 (+100)
Why The Marlins Could Cover The Spread
The Marlins are going to miss the playoffs again due to another pathetic effort from their lineup and a mediocre pitching staff that would be worse without Sandy Alcantara. Last night, they managed a solid comeback but otherwise struggled offensively. Miami hopes to do more today.
Jon Berti has been the leadoff hitter all season. However, he does not have the stats to justify the spot. Berti is batting .237 with four home runs, 26 RBIs, and 44 RBIs this season. Therefore, he has work to do and must perform better from the leadoff spot. De La Cruz was the hero last night. Now, he looks to replicate his effort. De La Cruz is now batting .240 with 12 home runs, 38 RBIs, and 34 runs this season. With the two RBIs from yesterday's game, he is 1 for 8 in this series. Joey Wendle is the other threat in the lineup. So far, he is batting .258 with three home runs, 31 RBIs, and 26 runs this year.
The Marlins do not have the talent to keep up with most teams. However, they are still capable of taking advantage of mistakes. The Marlins will cover the spread if they get a good outing out of their starter. Likewise, the Marlins need their bats to produce more and prevent Peralta from getting into a rhythm.
Why The Brewers Could Cover The Spread
The Brewers trail the Phillies by a game with four left to play. Therefore, this game feels like a must-win situation. They need hitting, pitching, and defense to perform.
Yelich is batting .251 with 13 home runs, 55 RBIs, and 97 runs this year. However, he is struggling in this series, batting .167 (2 for 12) with one home run, one RBI, and two runs. His poor defense cost the Brewers the game yesterday. Hunter Renfroe is another solid player on the Brewers, batting .256 with 28 home runs, 70 RBIs, and 60 runs. Also, he is batting .364 (4 for 11) with a run over the three games in this series. Rowdy Tellez is batting .222 with 34 home runs, 88 RBIs, and 66 runs this year. Alternatively, he is batting .250 (2 for 8) with an RBI in this series.
The Brewers need their defense to perform better. Subsequently, it was a fielding error that doomed them last night. The Brewers will cover the spread if they can hit the ball and build a substantial lead. Additionally, they need a good performance from Peralta and the defense to execute.
Final Marlins-Brewers Prediction & Pick
The Brewers are desperate and need to keep winning. Therefore, expect them to pull out all the stops to get a victory. The Brewers should rebound from last night and score enough runs to cover the spread.
Final Marlins-Brewers Prediction & Pick: Milwaukee Brewers: -1.5 (+132)
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