The Miami Marlins will meet the Chicago Cubs for the second game of a three-game set at Wrigley Field on the Northside. It's time for us to keep our MLB odds series going with a Marlins-Cubs prediction and pick.
The Cubs defeated the Marlins 2-1 on Friday. It was a scoreless game until the seventh inning when Joey Wendle clipped an RBI single to right-center field, giving the Marlins a 1-0 lead. Then, the Cubs shot back in the eighth when Willson Contreras blasted a low pitch to deep left field, giving the Cubs a 2-1 lead. It was his 15th of the season and would be enough to win.
The Cubs got 4 2/3 innings from starter Justin Steele. Subsequently, the bullpen went 4 1/3 innings while allowing one earned run. The Marlins bullpen allowed just the home run.
Pablo Lopez will be on the mound for the Marlins. Lopez is 7-6 with a 3.41 ERA. Recently, he struggled, going only 2 2/3 innings while allowing six earned runs on 12 hits. Lopez went 2-2 with a 4.65 ERA last month and looks to improve on that mark. Subsequently, he is 1-1 with a 1.50 ERA in two games started against the Cubs throughout his career. Lopez had a dominating performance at Wrigley last season, tossing seven shutout innings while allowing a lone hit.
Drew Smyly takes the mound for the Cubs. Smyly is 3-6 with a 4.42 ERA. Recently, he went four innings while allowing five earned runs on seven hits, including two home runs. Smyly had a bad July, going 1-1 with a 6.06 ERA over four starts. Also, he has struggled at home, going 0-3 with a 4.29 ERA over five starts in his ballpark. Smyly is 3-1 with a 3.04 ERA over four starts (and one relief appearance) against the Marlins in his career.
Here are the Marlins-Cubs MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Marlins-Cubs Odds
Miami Marlins: -1.5 (+168)
Chicago Cubs: +1.5 (-205)
Over: 8 (-112)
Under: 8 (-108)
Why The Marlins Could Cover The Spread
The Marlins left 11 runners on base yesterday. It is impossible to win when you blow that many chances. They had three legitimate scoring opportunities. First, they had the bases loaded with just one out in the fifth inning. The Marlins ultimately struck out and flew out to end that frame. Then, Miguel Rojas was in scoring position at second with two outs in the fifth, and that inning ended with no runs. Miami had one run entering the eighth and had runners on first and second with two outs, but could drive neither runner in.
Wendle went 1 for 5 while Garrett Cooper went 0 for 4. Also, Jesus Aguilar went 0 for 4. Bryan De La Cruz went 1 for 4. The Marlins' 3-4-5 hitters combined for one hit, and that will not get the job done most nights.
The Marlins will cover the spread if Lopez pitches a good game and the bullpen holds. However, the Marlins must convert their scoring chances. If the bases are loaded with one out, one of those runners must score. It is a situation where the hitter has to deliver a sacrifice fly to at least move the runners.
Why The Cubs Could Cover The Spread
The Cubs were not that effective from the plate either. Ultimately, the home run would be enough. Contreras finished 1 for 4 from the plate. Meanwhile, Patrick Wisdom went 0 for 3 and Ian Happ went 1 for 3. The Cubs left six runners on base that could have given them the lead earlier in the game.
The Cubs don't have a bad offense, as they are in the middle of the road. Chicago ranks 16th in batting average, 12th in on-base percentage, 22nd in runs, 18th in home runs, and 15th in slugging percentage. Consequently, it was not the offense that won them the game. The home run would not be possible without the pitching that kept the score close.
The Cubs did not get a quality start from their starter but their bullpen did its job. Now, they must find that balance today. Smyly has the task of going the distance and recovering from his prior start. Also, he must avoid allowing too many runners on base because lightning will not strike twice.
The Cubs will cover the spread if their offense musters more than two runs. Additionally, they need a good pitching performance on par with yesterday's game.
Final Marlins-Cubs Prediction & Pick
The Marlins missed too many chances yesterday. Ultimately, that stroke of bad luck and execution will not happen two days in a row. Expect the Marlins to capitalize on their chances today and even up the series in an exciting victory at Wrigley.
Final Marlins-Cubs Prediction & Pick: Miami Marlins: -1.5 (+168)
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