The Miami Marlins head to the windy city to face the Chicago Cubs in game one of this weekend series. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Marlins-Cubs prediction, pick, and how to watch.
Miami comes in fresh off being swept by the Atlanta Braves, and now losers of six of their last ten. Interestingly enough, the six losses are all to the Braves, while three of the four wins are over the Cubs. The Cubs were nearly swept by the Washington Nationals. They lose three of four and now have lost six of their last seven games. This year against the NL East the Cubs are a combined 1-7.
Here are the Marlins-Cubs MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Marlins-Cubs Odds
Miami Marlins: +1.5 (-140)
Chicago Cubs: -1.5 (+116)
Over: 9 (-122)
Under: 9 (+100)
How To Watch Marlins vs. Cubs
TV: MLB Network / MARQ/ BSFL
Stream: MLB.TV
Time: 2:20 PM ET/ 11:20 AM PT
*Watch MLB games LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why The Marlins Could Cover The Spread
In a lot of ways, the Marlins are a very average team. They are 15th in batting average this year at .250, 22nd in on-base percentage, 7th in stolen bases, 14th in strikeouts, and 20th in OPS. The problem is, all those average stats have led to below-average run production for the Marlins this year. They have only scored 108 runs this year, which placed them just four runs over the Tigers for last in the majors. One of the biggest issues is the ISO power rating for the Marlins. They are 25th in the league in ISO power, meaning the majority of their hits are singles, and they are not driving the ball for extra-base hits.
The power this year has come from Jorge Soler and Jazz Chisholm. Soler has hit six home runs and nine doubles on the year, but that has only resulted in 13 RBIs so far this year. Chisholm has hit five home runs, two doubles, and a triple. The best example of their lack of power comes from Luis Arraez though. Arraez leads the league in batting average currently, but of his 42 hits this year, only eight have been for extra bases.
The Marlins will be starting Edward Cabrera today. In six starts this year he is 2-2 with a 4.67 ERA. He has given up exactly two runs in five of these six starts. One of those was two runs on zero hits against the Mets early in the season, as he walked seven guys. Control has been an issue this year for Cabrera, but if he can keep the hits down, and the ball in the yard, the Marlins will have a chance.
Why The Cubs Could Cover The Spread
The Cubs have been crushing it in the National League, ranking near the top in several categories so far in 2023. The Cubs are top ten in the majors in runs, hits, triples, home runs, RBIs, stolen bases, batting average, OBP, and OPS. The offense has been fantastic this season. The offense has a gluttony of solid players who are producing right now.
Cody Bellinger has been resurgent this year. He has hit seven home runs and 18 RBIS on the season. His OBP is .370 and he leads the team in runs scored with 24. He has been great with runners in scoring positions, and getting into scoring positions himself. On the year, Bellinger has six stolen bases. Nico Hoerner also steals and scores a lot. He is second on the team in runs with 23, and leads the team with 11 stolen bases, to go with his 18 RBIs. Patrick Wisdom has been the major power threat. He has hit 11 home runs this year, leading to him driving in 21 on the year.
The Cubs will be sending Justin Steele to the mound. He has been dominant this year with a 1.49 ERA. Steele has allowed two or fewer earned runs in every start this year leading to his 4-0 record in six starts. He has two scoreless outings, and his last time out was the only time the Cubs lost when he started this year. That was against the Marlins though. The difference in this one is Steele is at home. At home this year, Steele has a .52 ERA.
Final Marlins-Cubs Prediction & Pick
The difference is this game may be pitching and manufacturing runs. While the Marlins do have some speed, the Cubs are much better in the manufacturing of runs department. When they get into scoring position, the Cubs have one of the highest conversion rates in baseball. In the pitching category, the edge also goes to the Cubs with Justin Steele. He will pitch six innings and just give up one tonight as the Cubs get the win.
Final Marlins-Cubs Prediction & Pick: Cubs -1.5 (+116)
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