MLB odds: Marlins vs. Padres prediction, odds, pick, and more – 8/9/2021
The Miami Marlins and San Diego Padres begin a three-game series on Monday night as both teams attempt to snap out of funks and put together winning streaks. It’s time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Marlins-Padres prediction and pick.
San Diego currently stands at 64-49 and is 38-23 at home. If you put $100 on every single Padres game so far this season, you’d be down $542 on the moneyline.
Miami currently stands at 47-65 and is 20-38 on the road. If you put $100 on every single Marlins game so far this season, you’d be down $1,038 on the moneyline.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the Marlins-Padres odds.
MLB Odds: Marlins-Padres Odds
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Miami Marlins ML (+220)
San Diego Padres ML (-245)
Over 7.5 Runs (-102)
Under 7.5 Runs (-118)
Why The Marlins Could Win This Game
The Marlins will limp to San Diego coming off a series where their starting pitching was completely abused in Colorado. Their starters gave up an astounding 24 earned runs in 9 1/3 innings, essentially losing the game for Miami in the first three innings.
Zach Thompson will be on the mound looking to turn this bad fortune around. Thompson has seen some success in the first year of his career, pitching to a 2.53 ERA in nine starts.
The righty has already pitched against the Padres once this year, turning in a quality outing by only giving up three runs over five innings. Thompson was excellent in the month of July, pitching to a 3.05 ERA and holding opponents to a .211 batting average while only giving up three home runs.
It’s unlikely the Padres’ lukewarm bats knock Thompson out early, and he should keep the Marlins in this one for the first few innings at the very least.
In the batter’s box, the Marlins badly need a bounce-back game against Padres righty Joe Musgrove.
Thankfully for Miami, Musgrove has cooled off slightly after a lights-out start to the season. Musgrove’s ERA since July is 3.51, compared to his ERA of 2.53 in the first three months of the year.
The Marlins have hit righties much better than lefties all year, and their OPS raises 30 points with right-handers on the mound. Musgrove isn’t exactly a flamethrower, and Miami should not be totally overmatched in this one.
Additionally, keep an eye on Jesus Aguilar to do some damage. The slugger is 4-9 against Musgrove with two homers and four RBI. If there’s traffic on base early, Aguilar could add to the RBI number quickly.
Why The Padres Could Win This Game
While the Padres haven’t exactly been hot, they haven’t been terrible either. San Diego hasn’t lost a series in a month, but in that span they’ve split five of them, including a four-game set against Miami.
The Padres have been carried by their pitching of late, allowing more than two earned runs in only two of their last six games.
Musgrove has a good chance of doing his part to continue this trend. Despite slowing down in the second half, he has still pitched extremely well of late. In his last three appearances, Musgrove allowed only three earned runs in 19 innings. Over that span, he struck out 20 batters while walking only five.
The Marlins are prone to strikeouts at a time when Musgrove is mowing them down. Miami has the fifth-most strikeouts in the league and the 10th-lowest batting average, and Musgrove should navigate a poor lineup with little damage. We can expect a repeat of his outing against Miami two weeks ago in which he allowed two earned runs in only six innings.
The Padres have their work cut out for them against Zach Thompson, who has never given up more than three earned runs in an outing. However, judging by San Diego’s last appearance against Thompson, they should see some success against the righty.
Last time they faced Thompson, six different Padres recorded a hit against the starter, and they managed to get three runs in just two innings. This was all done without Fernando Tatis Jr., who will remain sidelined for this game as well.
After getting one look at Thompson and seeing him pretty well as a team, expect the Padres to get some runs across on Thompson before he hands the ball off.
Final Marlins-Padres Prediction & Pick
This game should be much closer than the odds indicate. There’s no way the Padres should be anything higher than -200 favorites, and this game should actually be within reach for the Marlins midway through. Thompson has proven fairly reliable, and Miami is capable of scratching across one or two runs against Musgrove. I don’t trust the Marlins late, especially after trading their closer and considering they’re going against the best bullpen in the game. However, I will play Miami to be either tied or in the lead at the end of the fifth inning at plus money odds. Thompson and Musgrove should go pitch for pitch, and expect the Marlins to be alive and well five innings into the game.
FINAL MARLINS-PADRES PREDICTION: MIAMI MARLINS F5 INNINGS +0.5 (+110)