The Miami Marlins take on the San Diego Padres. Check out our MLB odds series for our Marlins Padres prediction and pick.
Sandy Alcantara takes the bump for the Marlins, while Yu Darvish will start for the Padres. Let's look at the pitching matchup, which might make the Marlins Padres odds a little easier to assess.
Sandy Alcantara allowed a total of six runs in his first four starts. He had a great month of April. His most recent start against Seattle on May 1 did not go well. He gave up five runs in 5 2/3 innings. His ERA is still under three, at 2.90, which tells you how strong he was in his first four outings. Was his recent stumble against the Mariners a one-off event, or a sign of more erosion and difficulty in the weeks and months ahead? MLB odds experts are wrestling with that question.
Yu Darvish has a 4.44 ERA for the Padres. However, that ERA is the product of one horrible game on April 12 against the Giants, in which he surrendered nine runs in 1 2/3 innings. Darvish produced a quality start — at least six innings pitched, no more than three runs allowed — in his other four games. He has given the Padres what they were hoping for this season.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Marlins-Padres MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Marlins-Padres Odds
Miami Marlins: +1.5 (-194)
San Diego Padres: -1.5 (+162)
Over: 6.5 (-118)
Under: 6.5 (-104)
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Why The Marlins Could Cover the Spread
The Marlins have lost five games in a row. This could be used as a good reason to take the Padres in this game, but remember that over the course of a long, six-month season, with games being played one day after the other, a team is rarely going to lose a huge number of games in a row. The Cincinnati Reds are the exception which proves the rule. Generally in baseball, if a team loses five straight, its odds of winning that sixth game are better, not worse.
What is also worth noting is that Sandy Alcantara is a solid starting pitcher. The loss to the Mariners was a rare slip-up as opposed to an indicator of consistently low quality. The Marlins should feel good putting the ball in Alcantara's hands. This is one part of the calculus when making a Marlins Padres prediction for Friday's game.
Why The Padres Could Cover the Spread
The Marlins have lost five in a row. They're not a good team. They got swept at home by the Arizona Diamondbacks. That should tell you something about them. They won a series against the Seattle Mariners, which might have seemed impressive at the time, but the Mariners are in a downward spiral and have not played well since their trip to Miami. The Marlins just don't appear to be a particularly good team. Factor that assessment into your Marlins Padres pick.
Meanwhile, San Diego is 17-9, enjoying a terrific start to the season under new manager Bob Melvin, who seems to have the right touch with this team. The Padres struggled a lot last year against the teams they were supposed to beat. They would get up for the Los Angeles Dodgers but would then get ambushed by the weaker teams in their division and elsewhere in the National League. This year, the Padres are taking care of business against inferior foes. That is precisely why you can trust them in this spot. Also, Yu Darvish's not-great ERA is more the product of one bad game than a series of mediocre outings. He looks good and should be able to contain the Marlins' bats. When you size up the Marlins Padres odds, that's the bottom line.
Final Marlins-Padres Prediction & Pick
If Darvish pitches the way he has been pitching most of the season, the Padres should win. It's that simple.
Final Marlins-Padres Prediction & Pick: Padres -1.5
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