The New York Mets take on the Atlanta Braves. Check out our MLB odds series for our Mets Braves prediction and pick.

Max Scherzer goes to the mound for the Mets, while Kyle Wright gets the start for the Braves in this monster matchup.

Before we get into the particulars of each starting pitcher, let's briefly note the stakes attached to this game: The Mets and Braves are tied in the standings, but the other huge key in the National League East race is that there is no Game 163 under the new playoff format. Teams won't play a division playoff game if tied in the standings. Head-to-head records will determine who wins the division in the case of a tie. The Mets just need one of these next two games to win the season series. That means the Mets and Braves could split the next two games, and the Mets would have the inside track heading into the final three games of the season. The Braves need to sweep this series if they want the head-to-head tiebreaker. Given that Atlanta would have a two-game lead if it does sweep New York this weekend, the stakes are enormous. The Mets would essentially gain two games with a split (since a tie would then give New York the edge). Atlanta would gain two games with a sweep. Buckle up.

Now, to the pitching matchup:

Max Scherzer has a 2.13 ERA. When healthy, he has pitched like an ace for the Mets this year … but he hasn't always been healthy. His season has been interrupted multiple times by injuries, including an injury in early September which caused him to miss two starts. Since he returned from that injury on Sept. 19, Scherzer has looked strong. He has given up one run in 12 innings in his two starts after coming back from his most recent health problem. If he can remain healthy for the duration of October, the Mets certainly have to feel good about where they stand. Scherzer's two recent starts, however, came against the Milwaukee Brewers and the Oakland A's. The Atlanta Braves present a far bigger and more difficult challenge. We will see if Scherzer is up to the task.

Kyle Wright has a 3.18 ERA. He has been good this year, but not great. He is a 20-game winner, but that is more the product of great run support than overwhelmingly amazing pitching. Wright's ERA was 2.39 on June 7. His next three starts after that high-water mark pushed his ERA up to 3.18. He allowed 12 earned runs in 17 1/3 innings in that mid-June rut. At the end of June, he began another good run in which he pitched 25 innings and allowed only six earned runs. That shoved his ERA down under 2.50, but he regressed again and watched his ERA go back to 3.18. The Braves have helped him a lot this year. Get this: In seven of his last eight starts, the Braves have scored at least five runs. Atlanta has scored at least five runs in 10 of Wright's last 12 starts. The Braves have scored at least four runs in 15 of Wright's last 16 starts. Every other pitcher would love to have this level of run support.

Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Mets-Braves MLB odds.

MLB Odds: Mets-Braves Odds

New York Mets: -1.5 (+142)

Atlanta Braves: +1.5 (-172)

Over: 7 (-124)

Under: 7 (+102)

 

Why The Mets Could Cover the Spread

They have Max Scherzer on the mound in a big game. Who else would the Mets or any team rather have? Kyle Wright is good, but Max Scherzer is clearly better. Kyle Wright won't get the run support he usually receives. Mets win.

Why The Braves Could Cover the Spread

The Braves have been waiting for their big chance to take control of the N.L. East. This is their big opportunity. A roaring Atlanta crowd will be that their back. The Mets wobbled in September and could wilt. Scherzer, as good as he is, isn't pitching against the Brewers or A's this time. The Braves are a different animal, and they will put together good at-bats, much as they did against Jacob deGrom.

Final Mets-Braves Prediction & Pick

This is a great game and a huge one … which means you should stay away from it. Everything about this game feels evenly matched, and since these teams are tied in the standings, can you really give a clear edge? If you absolutely insist on a pick, lean to Scherzer.

Final Mets-Braves Prediction & Pick: Mets -1.5