The New York Mets and Atlanta Braves will face off in another crucial NL East matchup. The Mets are clinging to a slim three-game lead in the division, with Atlanta hot on their heels. New York managed to scrape out a win on Tuesday, but with two more games left in the series, the Braves could make lots of progress toward that division lead. It's time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Mets-Braves prediction and pick.
Let's see how the sportsbooks have set the lines for this crucial matchup.
MLB Odds: Mets-Braves Odds
New York Mets ML (+135)
Atlanta Braves ML (-146)
Over 9 runs (-105)
Under 9 runs (-115)
Why The Mets Could Cover The Spread
New York comes into this game as a surprisingly big underdog, but that shouldn't deter bettors too much.
Atlanta starter Max Fried comes into this game with an ERA of 4.21 and a 1.34 WHIP, neither of which are great numbers. The Mets are also better offensively when playing on the road, earning a higher batting average, slugging percentage and OPS.
New York will entrust pitcher David Peterson with the start. Peterson has been decent this season, but the real Mets pitching comes out of the bullpen. If Peterson can get through five innings of solid work against a struggling Atlanta lineup, the Mets should remain in striking distance the rest of the night thanks to the relievers.
Why The Braves Could Cover The Spread
While Max Fried's season-long statistics aren't great, there's more to the story than that. In his last seven games, Fried has pitched to the tune of a 2.59 ERA and a WHIP of 1.06. Both of those are significant improvements on his full-season statistics, meaning Fried is hitting his stride right now.
The Mets are also significantly worse offensively when they have to faced left-handed pitching, earning worse batting statistics across the board against southpaws. New York has already been struggling to swing the bat well, so a matchup against a good lefty is definitely not what the doctor ordered for the Mets.
Mets starter David Peterson doesn't exactly strike fear in the hearts of the Atlanta batters. Peterson has struggled lately, owning a 5.04 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP in his last seven starts. Peterson has faced the Braves once this season, and the results were far from stellar. He went four innings and allowed three runs, a good sign for Atlanta heading into this crucial game. Peterson is also prone to giving up plenty of runs early in the game, meaning Fried should have an early lead to defend throughout the game.
Final Mets-Braves Prediction & Pick
In what should be a close divisional matchup, I'm taking the under. Atlanta's last five games have all hit the under, and 12 of New York's last 18 have also hit the under. Both offenses are struggling mightily, which always helps. Fried should be able to shut down the Mets for six innings, while Peterson will likely get through five innings with a couple earned. The Mets' bullpen should be good enough to cover for Peterson and help this game hit the under. The odds also make this a good pick, as it's pretty much even money.
FINAL PICK: Under 9 runs (-115)
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