After a downright humiliating loss on Wednesday, the New York Mets will have the chance to avenge themselves in Thursday's game against the Atlanta Braves. Both teams are fighting over the lead in the NL East, with the Mets currently holding a 4.5-game lead on the Braves, making this series a hugely important one for both teams. Atlanta desperately needs to continue its winning ways in order to keep pace with the Mets, while New York is trying desperately to cling to a slim lead over the Washington Nationals. It's time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Mets-Braves prediction and pick.
Before we make the pick, let's see what the lines are for the game.
MLB Odds: Mets-Braves Odds
New York Mets ML (-155)
Atlanta Braves ML (+143)
Over 7 runs (-120)
Under 7 runs (-100)
Why The Mets Could Cover The Spread
The Mets have Jacob deGrom on the mound, and that's a good enough reason for me. The Mets ace has been one of the most dominant pitchers in MLB history this season. He has been untouchable all year long, pitching to the tune of a 0.69 ERA and a 0.53 WHIP. He has faced the Braves once this season and pitched five scoreless innings against them, a typical outing by his standards. Betting against deGrom is nearly impossible, as his presence on the mound allows the mediocre Mets to hang with any team in baseball.
Fortunately for the Mets, they don't have to contend with a deGrom-level opposing pitcher. The Braves will entrust Ian Anderson with the start. Anderson has been solid this year, owning an ERA of 3.42 and a WHIP of 1.18. But Anderson is prone to leaving games early, as many of his outings have ended in the fourth or fifth inning. If Anderson continues that trend, the Braves' bullpen will be forced into the game early.
Only one Atlanta reliever owns an ERA below 3.30. That should give a pretty solid idea as to how well that relief corps has performed this year. If asked to pitch long innings yet again, there's a good chance the Mets' dormant lineup wakes up a little.
Why The Braves Could Cover The Spread
After dropping 20 runs on the Mets last game, it looks like the Braves are on the way to waking up offensively. They are a significantly better offensive team when playing at home, with batter statistics in pretty much every single offensive category. Another interesting stat is that Atlanta is significantly better when playing at night. They bat only .208 when playing during the day, but that average skyrockets to .248 when they play after dark. They may have to face deGrom, but at least they have these slight advantages to help combat his greatness.
While Ian Anderson is no ace, he has been a solid option for the Braves all year long. The last time he faced the Mets he pitched five scoreless frames before handing the game over to the bullpen. Anderson is certainly capable of another outing like that against a Mets offense that hasn't scored more than four runs in seven games.
Final Mets-Braves Prediction & Pick
Despite the humiliating loss on Wednesday, I'm going with the Mets in this one. The moneyline odds aren't bad for a game where deGrom is starting. It's just too hard to pick against him, as he's essentially a lock to hold the other team below two runs for the entirety of his appearance. This will be close because of New York's slumping offense, but they should come away with the win.
FINAL PICK: New York Mets ML (-155)
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