The New York Mets will begin a three-game series against the Miami Marlins at LoanDepot Park in South Florida. It's time to continue our MLB odds coverage with a Mets-Marlins prediction and pick.
The Mets are riding some momentum, after sweeping the cross-town rival New York Yankees in two games. Now, they face a different task, as they head to South Florida to take on the Marlins. The Mets are 7-3 over 10 games, and 7-3 in their last 10 away games. Alternatively, they are 8-9 at LoanDepot Park since the start of the 2020 season but took two of three earlier this year.
The Marlins split a four-game series with the Cincinnati Reds after rallying from behind to beat them in the ninth inning. Subsequently, Miami is 4-6 over 10 games and 3-7 over its last 10 home games. The Mets lead the season series 7-4.
The Mets will go with Chris Bassitt on the mound today. Bassitt is 7-7 with a 3.72 ERA in 2022. Recently, he tossed seven innings while allowing two earned runs on four hits with 11 strikeouts. Bassitt is 1-2 with a 2.33 ERA in three starts in July, as he has experienced some bad luck despite pitching well. He is 1-2 with a 3.66 ERA over three starts against the Marlins in 2022. Subsequently, his last start against Miami went well, as he went 6 1/3 innings while allowing two earned runs on six hits.
The Marlins will go with Cy-Young candidate Sandy Alcantara on the hill. Alcantara is 9-4 with a 1.81 ERA. Likewise, his last start was solid, as he tossed six innings while allowing two earned runs on three hits with 10 strikeouts. Alcantara is 1-1 with a 2.45 ERA over three starts against the Mets in 2022.
Here are the Mets-Marlins MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Mets-Marlins Odds
New York Mets: -1.5 (+150) ML (-124)
Miami Marlins: +1.5 (-184) ML (+106)
Over: 6.5 (-105)
Under: 6.5 (-115)
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Why The Mets Could Cover The Spread
The Mets are World Series contenders. They got to this point with timely hitting and excellent pitching. Starling Marte, Pete Alonso, and Jeff McNeil are among the hitters that power them.
Marte is batting .300 with 10 home runs, 43 RBIs, and 56 runs. However, he has struggled against Alcantara, going 1 for 10 in his career. Alonso is batting .281 with 26 home runs, 84 RBIs, and 55 runs. Alternatively, he also has struggled against the Miami ace, batting .161 (5 for 27) with one home run and one RBI in his career. McNeil is batting .288 with four home runs, 36 RBIs, and 39 runs in 2022. Subsequently, he has done better against Alcantara than his teammates, batting .285 (8 for 28) with one home run and two RBIs.
The Mets will cover the spread if they can find a way to get to Alcantara early. They cannot allow the ace to get into a groove and must find ways to put him on his heels. Additionally, they need their hitters to work the count and get on base. The Mets swept the Yankees due to timely hitting and good pitching. Thus, they need a good combination of that in this showdown.
Why The Marlins Could Cover The Spread
The Marlins have suffered since the injury to Jazz Chisholm. While they are 20-19 since then, their offense is batting .232 and striking out more. They lack the leader at the top of the order. However, they still have some quality hitters in Jesus Sanchez, Jesus Aguilar, and Joey Wendle.
Sanchez is batting .204 with 11 home runs, 31 RBIs, and 35 runs. Also, he is 1 for 6 with one home run and two RBIs in his career against Bassitt. Aguilar is batting .245 with 11 home runs, 39 RBIs, and 32 runs. Additionally, he is 2 for 6 against Bassitt. Aguilar went 3 for 4 in Thursday's game. Wendle is batting .293 with two home runs, 20 RBIs, and 14 runs. Subsequently, he is 1 for 6 against the Mets' starter with one RBI.
The Marlins will cover the spread if they can get their ace an early lead. Their offense must produce to give Alcantara a chance to dominate. Sanchez, Aguilar, and Wendle must all produce for the Marlins to thrive. Naturally, Alcantara must continue to succeed at locating pitches and confusing hitters. The Miami bullpen must protect the lead if Alcantara gives them the option.
Final Mets-Marlins Prediction & Pick
The Mets are playoff bound while the Marlins likely are sitting out. However, Alcantara has had a magical season, and his four losses do not justify how good he is. While Bassitt can go toe-to-toe with him against a weak Marlins lineup, it is difficult to bet against Alcantara under any circumstances. Take the Marlins to eke out a win and give Alcantara his 10th victory of the season.
Final Mets-Marlins Prediction & Pick: Marlins ML (+106)
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