MLB odds: Mets vs. Red Sox prediction, odds, pick, and more – 9/21/2021
The Mets held on to their playoff hopes for most of this season, but it looks like New York is officially going to miss the playoffs. After a recent five-game losing streak, the Mets find themselves six games back in the NL East and 7.5 games back of the last wild card seed. Boston, on the other hand, has put together a recent winning streak that has propelled them into a wild card spot. The Red Sox still have plenty of work to do though, as the rival New York Yankees are hot on their heels in the race for a playoff berth. These two games are huge for Boston, so they should make for some entertaining baseball.
Here’s how the bookmakers have set the lines for Tuesday’s game.
MLB Odds: Mets-Red Sox Odds
New York Mets ML (+119)
Boston Red Sox ML (-129)
Over 9 1/2 runs (+103)
Under 9 1/2 runs (-123)
*Watch MLB games LIVE with fuboTV (click for free trial)*
Why The Mets Could Cover The Spread
As usual, the Mets will rely on their stellar pitching. Manager Luis Rojas will entrust Tuesday’s start to pitcher Marcus Stroman. Stroman has had a great season, posting a 2.88 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP on the year. Both are above-average numbers, but they get even better when Stroman pitches on the road. Both those numbers improve, and Stroman’s opponent’s batting average drops from .259 in Citi Field to .221 anywhere else. The Red Sox are in the middle of a hot streak, but there’s good reason to believe that Stroman is the right guy to slow them down.
Luckily for New York, they don’t have to face a pitcher of Stroman’s caliber. Eduardo Rodriguez is set to take the hill for the Sox in this series opener. At first glance, Rodriguez’s stats don’t look all that bad. He’s earned himself a 5.00 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP on the year, but both of those numbers get significantly worse when he pitches in Fenway Park. Rodriguez has pitched to the tune of a 6.32 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP on his home field. His opponents have also hit him for a .278 batting average in Boston. There aren’t very many plus matchups for a poor Mets offense, but this is one of them.
Why The Red Sox Could Cover The Spread
The Red Sox enter this game as one of the hottest offensive squads in baseball. They’ve scored seven or more runs in each of their last five games, all of which have ended in victories. September has been Boston’s best offensive month by a wide margin, as they’ve earned their best batting average, OBP, OPS, and slugging percentage of any month in the last two weeks. This team is peaking at the right time, and they aren’t an easy matchup for any pitcher.
This Boston lineup also has significant history against Stroman in particular. There are seven projected starters in this Red Sox lineup that own a career batting average of .250 or higher against the Mets starter. Stroman also allows a hard-hit percentage of 41.5%, a number that is slightly worse than average. The Red Sox specializes in scoring extra-base hits and home runs, so these Boston batters should be looking forward to this matchup.
Final Mets-Red Sox Prediction & Pick
It’s hard to pick against Boston here, but the Mets are the right choice. Stroman has a good chance at slowing down the Sox hitters, and Rodriguez should yield plenty of runs to New York. Take the Mets as underdogs with confidence here. The over is also in play in this one.
FINAL PICK: New York Mets ML (+119)