The Washington Nationals (18-23) travel to the Miami Marlins (20-21) in a NL East matchup. This game will continue our MLB odds series with a Nationals-Marlins prediction and pick while we also let you know how to watch.
The Nationals are 5-5 in their last 10 games, but they are exceeding expectations this season. At just five games under .500, many experts believed they would be closer to the Athletics level of play. Washington is coming off a four game split with the New York Mets. They did out score the Mets 17-16 during the four games, including a 10-3 victory Sunday afternoon. Joey Meneses leads the Nationals in batting average (.300) while three different players have four home runs to lead Washington in that category.
The Marlins are sitting in a tie for second place in the NL East and they have high expectations for themselves. However, they are just 4-6 in their last 10 games. In the month of May, the Marlins have a record of 4-8. Luis Arraez leads the entire MLB in batting average (.328) and Jorge Soler has nine home runs and 20 RBI to lead the Marlins in those categories.
Josiah Gray will start for the Nationals while Jesus Luzardo takes the ball for Miami.
Here are the Nationals-Marlins MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Nationals-Marlins Odds
Washington Nationals: +1.5 (-152)
Miami Marlins: -1.5 (+134)
Over: 7.5 (-115)
Under: 7.5 (-105)
How To Watch Nationals vs. Marlins
TV: MASN, Bally Sports Florida
Stream: MLB TV Subscription
Time: 6:40 PM ET/3:40 PM PT
*Watch MLB games LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why The Nationals Could Cover The Spread
Josiah Gray has been the Nationals best pitcher this season. He has a 2.96 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP. Gray has allowed two earned runs or less in six of his last seven starts. He is not striking out as many batters this season, but he is on pace to have a career best ERA. Gray has gone at least five innings in all eight of his starts this season as well. With the Marlins hitting worse against right-handed pitching, Gray has an opportunity to go deep into this game and give the Nationals a chance to win. If Gray can do this, they will at least cover the spread.
Gray has lowered his barrel percentage this season to go along with a career high ground ball rate. He forces weak contact on the ground and this should bode well for him in this game. If Gray can continue this, he will shut down the Marlins and lead the Nationals to a win.
Why The Marlins Could Cover The Spread
Luzardo has a career high chase percentage this season. His pitches are playing well off each other and many batters are struggling to lay off pitches outside of the zone. The Nationals have the ninth highest chase percentage as a team. Washington also has the fourth fewest walks in the MLB. Luzardo does not need to attack the zone all that much in this game. He can try to live on the corners and if he misses, the Nationals will swing. Luzardo should be able to have a good game Tuesday night.
Luzardo already does a great job keeping the Marlins in games. Miami is 6-2 when Luzardo pitches this season. With him on the mound, the Marlins have the confidence to win any game and that should help them out in this one. If the Marlins can grab an early lead, Luzardo will hold it.
Final Nationals-Marlins Prediction & Pick
There are two solid pitchers throwing in this game. However, Gray has been very good and the Marlins have covered a -1.5 spread in just three of Luzardo's eight starts. Miami is also 15-26 against the spread this season while the Nationals are 25-15. Washington should be able to keep this one close.
Final Nationals-Marlins Prediction & Pick: Nationals +1.5 (-152), Over 7.5 (-115)
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