The Washington Nationals take on the Arizona Diamondbacks. Check out our MLB odds series for our Nationals Diamondbacks prediction and pick.
Patrick Corbin has a 5.87 ERA. He has been a consistently subpar pitcher for the Nationals this season. His ERA has been higher than five runs since April 12, so it’s not as though he had a good ERA but suddenly imploded. No, he has been regularly poor for Washington. That said, he has been slightly better in recent weeks. He has shaved a 6.60 ERA on June 22 down to the current mark of 5.87. He delivered especially strong starts on June 28 against the Pirates (eight innings, one run allowed) and on July 4 versus the Marlins (seven innings, one run allowed). In his last start, however, we saw the usual version of Corbin in 2022. He was roughed up by the Braves for five earned runs in five innings.
Zac Gallen has a 3.56 ERA. His ERA was 1.14 on May 19, however, so over the past two months, he has endured several difficult starts. In a seven-start sequence from May 24 through June 28, Gallen gave up six runs on three different occasions. This fattened up his ERA and introduced fresh questions about Gallen’s ability to perform at a high level over the course of a full season. In his last three starts, Gallen has been moderately better, pitching 17 2/3 innings and allowing nine runs. It’s not great, but it’s better than getting shredded once every three starts, which was Gallen’s pattern in late May and throughout June. Gallen’s last start, on July 13 against the Giants, was a strong one. He went 6 2/3 innings and allowed just two runs, both in the seventh inning. Getting a few days of extra rest due to the All-Star break could give Gallen an extra boost heading into this contest.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Nationals-Diamondbacks MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Nationals-Diamondbacks Odds
Washington Nationals: +1.5 (-144)
Arizona Diamondbacks: -1.5 (+120)
Over: 8.5 (-115)
Under: 8.5 (-105)
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Why The Nationals Could Cover the Spread
The Nationals still have Juan Soto, so as long as he is still on the roster, he is going to provide a full-tilt effort, knowing that he wants to maximize his value on the open market, especially right before the trade deadline. The other members of the Nationals know that if Juan Soto is going to be traded, their own situations just became a little less certain, given that a potential deal for Soto will involve a lot of pieces, including some young major leaguers who will need regular playing time. There is a lot of incentive for Washington to play well here.
Why The Diamondbacks Could Cover the Spread
The Diamondbacks ended the first half of the season with a tough road win in San Diego against the Padres. Arizona is not a good team, but this is a hard-working team which never mails it in. Its hitters do struggle, but the effort is always there. Against a Washington team reeling from the Juan Soto trade news, it’s hard to refute the idea that Arizona will be the more motivated team in this series. Being able to host a series coming off the All-Star break means the D-Backs have slept in their own beds for the past four days. That will mean something here.
Final Nationals-Diamondbacks Prediction & Pick
First games after the All-Star break might not feel exactly like Opening Day, but they do involve a reset of the season. Therefore, you should treat this game as a stay-away situation. If you insist on making a pick, go with the fresh and rested Diamondbacks at home against Patrick Corbin.
Final Nationals-Diamondbacks Prediction & Pick: Diamondbacks -1.5
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