The Washington Nationals will meet the New York Mets in the finale of a three-game series at Citi Field in Queens. It is time to continue our MLB odds series with a Nationals-Mets prediction or pick.
The Nationals defeated the Mets 7-1 on Saturday. Washington started things early when Luis Garcia turned a Max Scherzer pitch and sent it into the right-field stands for a solo home run. It gave Washington the early first-inning lead. Later, the Mets struck in the third when Eduardo Escobar drove a shot to left-center for a home run. It was his 13th this year, making it a 1-1 tie.
Several innings later, it turned into a bullpen game, and the Nationals took advantage. Lane Thomas blasted a shot off Mets reliever Adam Ottavino and into the seats in left. Unfortunately for the Mets, things got worse in the ninth. The Nationals already had tallied one run in the ninth when CJ Abrams cleared the bases with an RBI single, making it 6-1. Subsequently, it would be enough to win.
Erick Fedde takes the mound for the Nationals today. Fedde is 5-9 with a 5.29 ERA. In a recent start, he struggled mightily, lasting only 2 2/3 innings while allowing six earned runs on nine hits. Fedde went 0-2 with a 9.39 ERA over two starts in August. Also, he struggled against the Mets in two starts this year. Fedde is 0-1 with an 11.37 ERA, with his longest start lasting five innings.
Carlos Carrasco is who the Mets will turn to in today's tilt. Carrasco is 13-5 with a 3.92 ERA. However, he has been out for a few weeks with an injury. Carrasco is set to make his return and has enjoyed success against the Nationals this year. In three starts, he is 2-0 with a 1.56 ERA.
The Mets lead the season series 11-4 with four more to play in this NL East showdown.
Here are the Nationals-Mets MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Nationals-Mets Odds
Washington Nationals: +1.5 (+132)
New York Mets: -1.5 (-160)
Over: 8.5 (-106)
Under: 8.5 (-114)
Why The Nationals Could Cover The Spread
The Nationals have traded away all their superior talent and are fully rebuilding. However, last night's game showed what their offense could do when it syncs up properly. Thomas is batting .242 with 15 home runs, 44 RBIs, and 48 runs. Also, he is batting .222 (6 for 27) with two home runs, four RBIs, and two runs over 11 games against the Mets. He will attempt to replicate last night's effort.
Garcia is batting .300 with six home runs, 29 RBIs, and 21 runs. Additionally, he is on fire over his last five games, batting .421 (9 for 21) with two home runs, three RBIs, and two doubles in that stretch.
The bullpen should receive some credit for efficiently handling a loaded Mets' offense. Moreover, they held onto a one-run lead in the eighth inning, giving Washington an extra inning to more damage.
The Nationals will cover the spread if Thomas, Garcia, and the rest of the offense get going. Additionally, Washington needs their pitching to hold. Fedde must do significantly better in this game to not stretch the bullpen too thin.
Why The Mets Could Cover The Spread
The Mets are holding onto the NL East by two games after last night's loss. Consequently, it has hindered their comfort level. But the Mets have a great team with a loaded offense. Two of those players include Pete Alonso and Jeff McNeil.
Alonso is batting .268 with 32 home runs, 106 RBIs, and 73 runs. However, he went 0 for 4 last night and is 1 for 7 in the series. Alonso is hitting .236 with six home runs, 11 RBIs, and 12 runs against the Nationals this year.
McNeil is batting .317 with seven home runs, 49 RBIs, and 57 runs for the year. Moreover, he is 3 for 7 in the series and continues his success against Washington. McNeil is batting .407 with one home run, six RBIs, and eight runs over 14 games against the Nats.
The Mets need better production from their bullpen. Consequently, the five earned runs ruined an outstanding performance by Scherzer. They hope to recover.
The Mets will cover the spread if Carrasco can deliver a great outing. Additionally, the Mets must hit the ball better than they did last night. They thrived off facing Fedde earlier and will look to keep the energy against him again.
Final Nationals-Mets Prediction & Pick
The Mets are battling for the division title, and the Nationals are going nowhere. Usually, New York has a high-powered offense. It did not do well last night. However, they love facing Fedde, and this is a great “get-well” game for the Mets. Expect the Mets to recover from last night's loss and dominate the Nationals while covering the spread.
Final Nationals-Mets Prediction & Pick: New York Mets: -1.5 (-160)
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