The San Diego Padres and Washington Nationals play the third game of a four-game series on Wednesday, with both teams sitting at one win apiece. It’s time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Nationals-Padres prediction and pick.
Washington currently stands at 41-43, with losses in five of the last six games. If you put $100 on every single Nationals game so far, you’d be down $318 on the moneyline so far.
San Diego has been much better, standing at 51-37 and in third place in the NL West. If you put $100 on every single Padres game so far, you’d be down $217 on the moneyline so far.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the Nationals-Padres odds.
MLB Odds: Nationals-Padres Odds
Washington Nationals ML (+156)
San Diego Padres ML (-169)
Over 8 Runs (-120)
Under 8 Runs (+100)
Why The Nationals Could Win This Game
The Nationals send Patrick Corbin to the mound, a pitcher who has been frustratingly inconsistent. Corbin had a string of quality starts snapped in his last outing, giving up five earned to the Los Angeles Dodgers in just 4 2/3 innings.
Prior to running into that Dodgers behemoth, the lefty had pitched fairly well in June. Corbin went at least five innings in all five June starts and gave up no more than four earned in each start. His best performance was an 8 1/3-inning masterpiece against the Pittsburgh Pirates in which he allowed only one earned run.
Against a Padres lineup that has a lower batting average, OBP, and slugging numbers, there's a chance Corbin gets a bounce-back game against an intimidating lineup.
Realistically, the Nationals' best chance to win this game comes from their bats. Washington's lineup has been lively of late, especially considering the quality of pitchers they've faced.
Even with the red-hot Kyle Schwarber out of the lineup, Washington scratched across four-plus runs against starting pitchers Joe Musgrove, Julio Urias, and Ryan Weathers. The combined ERA of these pitchers is just above 3.20.
The Nationals get a chance to tee off against Chris Paddack, who is a righty with reverse splits. Right-handed batters have hit .283 against Paddack, compared to left-handers who hit .233 against him. Paddack has given up seven homers to righties this season and only three to lefties, even though he has faced lefties in 32 more plate appearances.
This is good news for the right-heavy Nationals lineup, whose only true source of danger from the southpaw stance is Juan Soto. Expect Washington to scratch some runs across on Paddack at the minimum.
Why The Padres Could Win This Game
This has got to be a juicy matchup for a Padres lineup that has scored 23 runs in their last three games. Patrick Corbin has been terrible on the road and has yet to win a road matchup in 2021. The Nationals lefty has a 6.56 ERA away from home and has been shelled multiple times this season already when not in Washington.
This is a particularly tasty matchup for Wil Myers, who has owned Corbin in the past. Myers has hit .345 in 27 plate appearances against Corbin, including one homer and three RBI. Those numbers should increase against a pitcher who has yet to show true consistency this year.
Corbin struggles with hard hit balls, and his record against teams that rank high in slugging is ample evidence. He has pitched three times against teams that rank in the top 10 in slugging, and he has given up 15 earned runs in 14 2/3 innings pitched in those matchups. The Padres hold the 12th-highest slugging percentage in the league.
The Friars have a pitcher on the mound who, like Corbin, has been up and down all season. Chris Paddack has struggled occasionally but has shown more consistency than Corbin.
Paddack has made 15 starts this year, and he has gone at least five innings and given up three earned runs or under in eight of them. In his last start, Paddack went seven innings against the Phillies and allowed only three earned.
His numbers might not overly impress anyone, but there's a much lower chance that Paddack implodes than Corbin, especially when the game is at Petco Park. Paddack doesn't have to be lights out, but he just has to do enough to give the Padres a few innings and let the bats do the rest.
Final Nationals-Padres Prediction & Pick
Neither team is sending a starter to the mound that I truly trust to go deep in this game. Neither team has had a starter go longer than 5 1/3 innings in the series so far, meaning that both bullpens are already slightly fatigued. Additionally, both teams' bats have been hot, and the over has cashed in the two games prior. I expect Corbin to get slugged, but there's also a good chance that Paddack gets beat up as well. I'll stay away from the high juice on the Padres ML and instead go with the over in case Paddack is shaky.
FINAL NATIONALS-PADRES PREDICTION: OVER 8 RUNS (-120)
Follow Us
Subscribe