The Baltimore Orioles and New York Yankees will wrap up their three-game series on Wednesday night. It's time to continue our MLB odds series and make an Orioles-Yankees prediction and pick.
The Yankees are in the middle of one of the most disappointing seasons in recent memory. New York was expected to contend for the AL East and a World Series but instead currently sit in third place in their own division. The Tampa Bay Rays and Boston Red Sox have dominated the AL East, leaving no room for the Bronx Bombers. The Orioles, on the other hand, are playing exactly as everyone expected. Baltimore is last in the division and one of the worst teams in baseball. The Orioles are playing for pride at this point, and they would love to deal a blow to the Yankees' pride by taking this series from them.
Here's how the bookmakers have set the lines for Wednesday night's series finale.
MLB Odds: Orioles-Yankees Odds
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Baltimore Orioles +1 1/2 (+120)
New York Yankees -1 1/2 (-140)
Over 9 1/2 runs (-102)
Under 9 1/2 runs (-118)
Why The Orioles Could Cover The Spread
The Orioles will send Matt Harvey to the mound for Wednesday's game. That's usually a sentence that is met with cheers from the opposing team, but this time the reaction should be different. Harvey's season-long stats are abysmal, but his numbers over the last seven games are much improved. Over that span, Harvey has put together a 3.72 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP. They aren't elite numbers, but they're also not horrible. Labelling Harvey as a lock to give up a ton of runs is a mistake at this point in the season.
Helping Harvey is the fact that the Yankees are significantly worse against right-handed pitching. The Bronx Bombers' batting average is a solid .258 against left-handed pitching, but that plummets to .224 when they play a righty. All of New York's other batting stats follow the trend and fall against right-handed pitchers. The Yankees are also a worse offense at home, with their batting average falling whenever they play in Yankee Stadium.
Why The Yankees Could Cover The Spread
The Yankees have been on a bit of an offensive cold streak, but they have a pitcher who can pull more than his weight on the mound Wednesday. Jameson Taillon will make the start for the Yankees in this matchup.
Taillon is on a similar path to Harvey in terms of the 2021 season. His year-long stats aren't great, but his last seven appearances have been fantastic. Taillon has put up a 2.11 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP over those starts, two elite statistics. Taillon has the privilege of facing one of the league's worst offenses, so his numbers should improve after this start.
While the Yankees have been cold on offense recently, there's reason to believe they can turn it around in this matchup. Their projected starting lineup features four hitters who have a career batting average of .300 or higher against Matt Harvey. Harvey is also terrible on the road, allowing a .290 batting average to his opponents while earning a 5.77 ERA.
Final Orioles-Yankees Prediction & Pick
The Orioles should be able to pull off a cover in this one. The Yankees have been ice cold on offense lately, scoring more than four runs only once in their last 10 games. Harvey has been pitching well lately, which should be enough to keep Baltimore in the game against a struggling offense. The odds are also great on picking the Orioles to cover.
FINAL PICK: Baltimore Orioles +1 1/2 (+120)
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