The San Diego Padres will take on the Chicago Cubs on Tuesday night. It's time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Padres-Cubs prediction and pick.
Unsurprisingly, the Padres have been one of the best teams in the entire MLB. They've earned a 38-24 record behind a well-rounded approach. However, that record is only good enough for second place in the hotly contested NL West. San Diego needs to continue to rack up wins to keep pace with both the Los Angeles Dodgers and the San Francisco Giants. The Cubs, on the other hand, hasn't quite had the same success. Chicago is 23-37 on the season, one of the worst marks in the MLB. Regardless of the records at play, this should be an entertaining contest, so let's get into the pick.
Here are the Padres-Cubs MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Padres-Cubs Odds
San Diego Padres: -1.5 (+118)
Chicago Cubs: +1.5 (-142)
Over: 10.5 (-115)
Under: 10.5 (-105)
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Why The Padres Could Cover the Spread
The Padres will send Sean Manaea out to the mound for this game. Manaea has been one of San Diego's more reliable arms, earning a 3.52 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP on the season. It helps that he'll be facing a Cubs team that seems to be uncomfortable against left-handed pitching. Chicago earns a lower batting average, slugging percentage, OBP, and OPS against lefties compared to right-handed pitching. Another upper hand Manaea has is a total lack of familiarity between him and the Cubs. Only three of Chicago's batters have ever faced Manaea before, and none of them have had any sort of notable success against him. It's fair to expect another solid outing from Manaea here.
Unfortunately for Chicago, they don't have the same caliber of pitcher on the mound. Kyle Hendricks has been downright bad throughout this season, putting up a 5.22 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP on the season. In his last two outings, Hendricks has been shelled by the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Cincinnati Reds, two offenses that don't even come close to comparing to San Diego's. Another poor outing from Hendricks should be in the cards here.
Why The Cubs Could Cover the Spread
While it's true that Kendricks hasn't had much success this season overall, he's had some success against San Diego. Only three hitters on the Padres have a career batting average over .250 against Hendricks, and he had an absolutely stellar performance the last time he played San Diego. The righty nearly tossed a complete-game shutout but was pulled before he got the last out. He went 8.2 innings without allowing a run while striking out seven hitters. This matchup isn't as bad as it looks for Hendricks.
Home-field advantage will certainly benefit Chicago here. The Cubs are a significantly better offensive team when they play at home, earning a higher batting average, OBP, OPS, and slugging percentage. Hendricks is also a slightly better pitcher at Wrigley Field, earning a lower ERA and WHIP compared to his home numbers. Overall, playing in front of their home fans could be the factor that propels the Cubs to a cover here.
Final Padres-Cubs Prediction & Pick
The under should cash comfortably here. Manaea is a solid arm, and Hendricks has a history of success against this lineup. Lock in the under and don't look back.
Final Padres-Cubs Prediction & Pick: Under: 10.5 (-105)
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