The San Diego Padres will try to replicate the results of last night's contest as they meet the San Francisco Giants at Oracle Park. It's time to continue our MLB odds coverage with a Padres-Giants prediction.
The Padres defeated the Giants 8-7 in an extra-inning thriller on Friday night. The Padres trailed 1-0 entering the third when Jorge Alfaro clipped an RBI double to tie the game. Then, Jake Cronenworth slugged a two-run home run to right field. It was his third in 2022, giving the Padres a 3-1 lead. Next, the Giants answered back in the third when Darin Ruf smacked a two-run bomb to deep left to cut the deficit to 4-3. Ruff returned in the fifth and slammed a solo shot to tie the game up.
It was a tie until the eighth when Wil Meyers slugged a two-run double to give the Padres a 6-4 lead. However, the Giants struck in the ninth when Wilmer Flores hit a two-run single to send it into extras. Manny Machado gave San Diego the lead with an RBI single. Then, the Padres added an insurance run before entering the bottom half. They allowed one run to score before stranding a runner on first to end the game. The teams have won two games apiece in the season series, all the games taking place in San Francisco.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Padres-Giants MLB odds:
MLB Odds: Padres-Giants Odds
Padres: +1.5 (-170)
Giants: -1.5 (+140)
Over: 7 (+104)
Under: 7 (-128)
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Why The Padres Could Cover The Spread
San Diego will go with Joe Musgrove on the hill today. Musgrove is 4-0 with a 2.20 ERA over seven starts. He allowed three runs (two earned) with four hits and six strikeouts over six innings in his last start. Also, Musgrove has thrown six innings or more in each start in 2022, showcasing his ability to go deep into games. He is looking to stay unbeaten and would like to get some run support to help.
The Padres have struggled overall offensively without Fernando Tatis. They rank 22nd in batting average, 15th in on-base percentage, 22nd in home runs, and 22nd in slugging percentage. However, the Padres are 10th in runs scored, so they have scored in bunches in-between days of ineffectiveness.
Machado has done his part, hitting .363 with seven home runs and 24 RBIs. Additionally, Eric Hosmer is contributing with a .324 average with four home runs and 24 RBIs. It drops off significantly from there, as no other hitter in their lineup is hitting above .250. Conversely, the Padres slugged 11 hits last night and will look to do it again.
The Padres will cover the spread if they can get another excellent start from Musgrove. In addition to that, San Diego needs offensive production from guys other than Machado and Hosmer to give themselves the best chance to win this game.
Why The Giants Could Cover The Spread
San Francisco will roll out Carlos Rodon today. Rodon is 4-2 with a 3.49 ERA. He had his worst start in 2022 last weekend, as he allowed eight earned runs on 10 hits over 3 2/3 innings in a blowout loss to the St. Louis Cardinals. Now, he looks to bounce back from that subpar performance and prove why he has been one of the most reliable arms on the San Francisco staff. He has struck out 38 batters through seven innings and has produced 10 strikeouts or more in at least two games. Additionally, he has produced four games where he has struck out at least nine batters. He will have support from a San Francisco lineup that has performed admirably in 2022.
The Giants are fifth in batting average, third in on-base percentage, third in runs, eighth in home runs, and ninth in slugging percentage. San Francisco has hit the ball successfully, including last night when they scored seven runs and ten hits. Now, they look to maintain that consistency against the best starter on the San Diego staff.
Joc Pederson leads the Giants in long balls, as he has clipped seven home runs in 2022. Subsequently, he has 14 RBIs, as many of his homers have been solo shots. Flores has put up numbers with three home runs and 22 RBIs. The Giants still have Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford, and Thairo Estrada around. The three of them have come up with big hits at opportune moments.
The Giants will cover the spread if they can get a bounce-back game from Rodon. Additionally, San Francisco covers if they repeat what they did last night offensively. The Giants must strike at Musgrove early.
Final Padres-Giants Prediction & Pick
The teams battled to the very end yesterday. It will be a similar story. Musgrove is good enough to keep the Padres in the game even if they struggle to score. The Giants might win, but it would likely end in a walk-off in the ninth. The Padres will cover.
Final Padres-Giants Prediction & Pick: Padres +1.5 (-170)
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