MLB odds: Padres vs. Giants prediction, odds, pick, and more – 9/13/2021
Monday marks the beginning of several important series, and this one may be the most important of all of them. The Padres are currently tied for the second Wild Card spot in the NL, making every game they play incredibly meaningful. The Giants are essentially locked into a playoff spot, but they are far from locking up the NL West division title. The Los Angeles Dodgers are hot on their heels, trailing the Giants by only 2.5 games. Both teams in this series have a lot to lose, so expect all the stops to come out in the next couple of games.
Here’s how the bookmakers have set the odds for Monday’s matchup.
MLB Odds: Padres-Giants Odds
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San Diego Padres ML (-104)
San Francisco Giants ML (-106)
Over 8 runs (-110)
Under 8 runs (-110)
Why The Padres Could Cover The Spread
San Diego’s offense will have to carry the team in order to win this game. That’s always a possibility when we’re talking about a lineup as stacked as the Padres, and it becomes even more feasible when considering the fact that the Giants are pitching a bullpen game on Monday. Reliever Dominic Leone will get the start here, but he rarely pitches for more than an inning. Asking a bullpen to pitch a full game against an offense as good as San Diego’s is always a big ask. San Francisco has also deployed its relievers quite a bit over the last three days, so fatigue should play a big factor.
While Padres starter Yu Darvish may be in the middle of an ice-cold streak of starts, there’s reason to believe that he can turn things around here. Darvish has already faced the Giants twice this season, pitching a combined 12 innings while only giving up two runs. San Francisco is also slightly worse against right-handed pitching, proven by their worse batting average, slugging percentage, OBP, and OPS against righties as opposed to lefties.
Why The Giants Could Cover The Spread
Yu Darvish’s aforementioned cold streak certainly can’t be overlooked as he gets ready to start in this one. Over his last seven appearances, Darvish has earned himself a 6.62 ERA, which is only slightly worse than his ERA over his last 15 starts. Now the righty has to face a Giants offense that ranks inside the top 10 in MLB in batting average, OBP, OPS, and slugging percentage. San Francisco should tee off on Darvish early and often.
This game will be a bullpen start for the Giants, but there isn’t really much reason to be concerned. San Diego’s offense has fallen off a cliff recently, as the team batting average is a mere .211 in September. All of the Padres’ other batting stats have experienced a similar regression over the last couple of weeks. The Padres still have the personnel to be one of the best offenses in baseball, but things just aren’t going their way right now.
Final Padres-Giants Prediction & Pick
This is a pretty simple pick. It’s surprising to see that the odds have the Giants as an even bet here when they should be favored slightly. Yu Darvish has been horrible lately, and so has the San Diego offense. Take advantage of the mistake in the odds and bet on San Francisco with confidence.
FINAL PICK: San Francisco Giants ML (-106)