The San Diego Padres will take on the Colorado Rockies on Friday night. It's time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Padres-Rockies prediction and pick.
The Padres have recently claimed first place in the NL West, one of the most prestigious crowns in the MLB. The division is loaded with top-tier talent, as the Los Angeles Dodgers and the San Francisco Giants are both legitimate World Series contenders that the Padres have to deal with. Despite that, San Diego has managed to take a half-game lead over the Dodgers for first place. The Rockies are on the other end of the spectrum, as their 27-37 record has them in the cellar of the division. While it's unlikely that things get any better for Colorado, this series is an opportunity to play spoiler to a division rival, something that shouldn't be taken lightly. Let's cut to the chase and get into the pick.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Padres-Rockies MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Padres-Rockies Odds
San Diego Padres: -1.5 (-104)
Colorado Rockies: +1.5 (-115)
Over: 12.5 (-114)
Under: 12.5 (-106)
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Why The Padres Could Cover the Spread
San Diego will put one of their more trustworthy arms on the mound in this game. Rookie starter MacKenzie Gore has been a pleasant surprise for the Padres, earning a 2.50 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP throughout nine starts. Those are quietly some of the best numbers in the league, and Gore has earned them against solid competition. It's fair to expect another decent outing from Gore at the very least against this middling Colorado offense.
The Rockies don't have the same quality of pitcher starting this game. Kyle Freeland hasn't been terrible, but he's been far from good with a 4.39 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP on the season. Freeland is also a lefty, which is great news for the Padres. San Diego earns a higher batting average, slugging percentage, OBP, and OPS against southpaws, making this a favorable matchup for them.
Why The Rockies Could Cover the Spread
While Gore has pitched well on the season, the Rockies aren't a great matchup for him. Colorado proved that the first time they faced Gore when they rocked him for five hits, four walks, and six runs over two innings of work. The Rockies had such great success against him in part because they love to hit left-handed pitching, just like the Padres. Colorado hits a whopping .283 against lefties, with similarly elite batting stats across the board. The Rockies will very likely replicate their performance from the first time they faced Gore.
Despite the Padres' track record of success against lefties, Freeland has been pretty good against them. He's only faced them once this season, but he only allowed two runs over six innings in that contest. In his last outing against San Diego in 2021, Freeland only gave up one run over six. Only three hitters in the Padres lineup have a career batting average higher than .250 against Freeland, and one of those guys has only faced the lefty three times. It's clear that Freeland has a good handle on this Padres team, and there's no reason to think that will change here.
Final Padres-Rockies Prediction & Pick
This is an easy pick. The Rockies should cover easily, and there's a decent chance that they take this game outright. Lock in the Rockies with confidence here.
Final Padres-Rockies Prediction & Pick: Colorado Rockies: +1.5 (-115)
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