The Philadelphia Phillies and the Chicago Cubs will wrap up their four-game series at Wrigley Field on Thursday night. It's time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Phillies-Cubs prediction and pick.
Wednesday night's game between these two teams shocked the MLB world, as no one expected the Cubs to score eight runs in a game. Chicago managed to pull off an upset behind that eight-run offensive showing, and now they have a chance to even the series score at two games apiece. The Phillies would love to clinch a series victory here, as every win counts while they try to chase down the NL East crown.
Here's how the bookmakers have set the lines for Thursday's series finale.
MLB Odds: Phillies-Cubs Odds
Philadelphia Phillies ML (+103)
Chicago Cubs ML (-113)
Over 7 1/2 runs (-102)
Under 7 1/2 runs (-118)
Why The Phillies Could Cover The Spread
The Phillies were rolling before Wednesday night's loss, leaning on the strength and consistency of their offense to lead them to victory. It's been a decent formula lately, as the Phillies have put up four or more runs in eight of their last ten games. I expect this offense to continue to play well against Chicago starter Adbert Alzolay.
Alzolay has been decent this year, posting a 4.48 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP. In his last seven starts his ERA has dropped very slightly, but his WHIP jumped up to 1.27. This means that some regression can be expected from Alzolay in the near future, as he's allowing plenty of batters on base but working out of trouble well. That's almost never sustainable, so I expect the Phillies to be able to capitalize when having runners on base.
Philadelphia will start Zach Eflin in this contest. Eflin's season stats are decent, as he's earned a 4.13 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP. Both are solid numbers that should continue, as the Cubs have been terrible on offense lately. Chicago has struggled to score runs in the last ten games, scoring more than four runs only four times in their last ten games. The Cubs also perform poorly against right-handed pitching, with their batting average nosediving from .253 against lefties to a meager .217 against lefties.
Why The Cubs Could Cover The Spread
Despite their recent cold streak, there are some reasons for optimism in the Cubs' offense. Eflin's season stats tell a different story than his recent stats, as he's gone through some tough times in his last seven starts. In that span, Eflin owns a 4.66 ERA and a WHIP of 1.34, both significantly worse than his season-long statistics. There's a chance the Cubs can stay hot after last night and tag Eflin early.
Even if Eflin can go his usual six innings, the Cubs should be able to score off of the Philadelphia bullpen. The Phillies have struggled in that area all season long, with only one reliever in their bullpen owning an ERA lower than 4.00. Even the Cubs should be able to score some runs off the Philadelphia relief arms.
While this doesn't look like a great matchup for Alzolay, there are some factors that are going his way. The Phillies also struggle against righties, sporting a lower batting average, OBP and OPS against righties. Philadelphia also isn't particularly good on the road, seeing all of their major batting statistics take a dive when they're away from home.
Final Phillies-Cubs Prediction & Pick
The odds have this game as a coin flip, but I think the Phillies have pretty good odds to win this one and clinch the series. Philadelphia is definitely worth this pick because of their odds, as I don't think they should be underdogs in this game. I expect the Phillies to end this series on a high note and take home a victory here.
FINAL PHILLIES-CUBS PREDICTION AND PICK: Philadelphia Phillies ML (+103)
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