The Philadelphia Phillies will take on the Milwaukee Brewers on Tuesday night. It's time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Phillies-Brewers prediction and pick.
The Phillies have been one of the most disappointing teams in all of baseball this season. Expectations were sky-high for them as they entered the year, but they've only managed to go 25-29, a record that has them 11.5 games out of first place in the NL East. Former manager Joe Girardi was fired only 51 games into the season, a sure indicator that things are going awfully. The Brewers haven't had any of the same struggles as Philadelphia. Milwaukee currently leads the NL Central with a 33-23 record, one of the better marks in the league. Regardless of the records at play, this should be an entertaining matchup. Let's cut to the chase and get into the pick.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Phillies-Brewers MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Phillies-Brewers Odds
Philadelphia Phillies: +1.5 (-220)
Milwaukee Brewers: -1.5 (+180)
Over: 8.5 (-122)
Under: 8.5 (+100)
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Why The Phillies Could Cover the Spread
The Phillies have been on an absolute tear at the plate recently. Philadelphia has scored six or more runs in four straight contests, with all four of those games resulting in victories. Their offensive numbers in the month of June are fantastic, as their batting average jumps from .244 to .267, with similar improvements in OBP, OPS, and slugging percentage. Philadelphia is also a better offensive team when they play on the road, as they experience improvements in just about every single batting statistic when they play away from home.
Luckily, the Phillies won't have to face one of the better starters on the Brewers. Jason Alexander is making his second career start for Milwaukee, making him a huge unknown. While he did pitch well in his debut, that's not enough reason to believe that Alexander will put together another quality start against one of the hottest offenses in baseball. There's a good chance that Alexander struggles in this game, as he's an inexperienced player facing a streaking lineup.
Why The Brewers Could Cover the Spread
Even with Alexander's inexperience, the Brewers have a huge pitching advantage in this game. The Phillies will count on Ranger Suarez in this contest, something that hasn't typically gone well for them. Suarez has had a terrible start to the season, posting a 4.69 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP on the year. Over his last three starts, the lefty has allowed ten earned runs over eleven innings of work. It's clear that Suarez is a below-average starter, and that will show in this contest.
Home field advantage will certainly help the Brewers in this matchup. Milwaukee has gone 15-9 at home this year, a much better clip than their 18-14 mark on the road. The Phillies have similar home and road splits, with a 15-15 record at home and a 10-14 road record. Philadelphia also allows significantly better batting numbers to their opponents when they play on the road. Milwaukee should get a huge leg up from playing in front of their home fans in this one.
Final Phillies-Brewers Prediction & Pick
The Phillies should cover, but the odds attached to them make them an unappealing pick. Instead, the under is the best pick. The Brewers have been ice cold at the plate lately, and Alexander should be able to limit the Phillies to only a couple of runs.
Final Phillies-Brewers Prediction & Pick: Under: 8.5 (+100)
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