The Philadelphia Phillies will take on the Seattle Mariners on Tuesday night. It's time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Phillies-Mariners prediction and pick.
The Phillies haven't met the expectations set for them so far. Philadelphia is only 13-16 on the year, a record that has them as the third-best team in the NL East. They've quickly fallen behind the New York Mets by six and a half games, so they need to start making up ground as soon as possible. The Mariners, strangely enough, are in a nearly identical situation. Seattle is 13-17, and they trail the first-place Los Angeles Angels by six and a half games. They need to get back in the win column in order to keep themselves competitive, and that starts here.
Here are the Phillies-Mariners MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Phillies-Mariners Odds
Philadelphia Phillies ML: (-126)
Seattle Mariners ML: (+108)
Over: 7 (-105)
Under: 7 (-114)
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Why The Phillies Could Cover The Spread
The Phillies have a big pitching advantage in this game. They're set to deploy ace Aaron Nola to the mound, something that has worked out well for them in the past. Nola has posted a 3.38 ERA and a 0.87 WHIP on the season, two elite numbers. His last couple of outings have also been fantastic. The righty just pitched seven innings of one-run ball against the Mets, while going another seven in his previous start against New York. It's fair to expect another solid outing from Nola against an aggressively mediocre Mariners lineup.
The Phillies should have a lot of success at the plate here. They'll face Mariners starter Robbie Ray, a guy they've had a lot of success against in the past. Seven players in the Philadelphia lineup have a career batting average of .250 or higher against Ray. It helps that Ray has taken a beating his last couple of times out, as he just gave up four runs over six innings to the Tampa Bay Rays. The game before that, Ray was hammered for three runs over five innings by the Miami Marlins. The Phillies shouldn't have that much trouble against him here.
Why The Mariners Could Cover The Spread
While Nola has pitched well lately, there's a chance the Mariners can get to him in this game. Nola has been significantly worse on the road, earning a 3.97 ERA while allowing opposing hitters to bat .302 against him. Pretty much every single one of Nola's stats are worse when he plays away from home. It also helps that Seattle hits right-handed pitchers significantly better than they do lefties. They earn better batting stats across the board against righties, making this matchup look much better than it initially looks.
Home field advantage will play a big part in this game. Nola struggles away from his home stadium, and the Mariners are much better offensively when they play in T-Mobile Park. Seattle earns a better batting average, OBP, OPS, and slugging percentage at play. They've also earned an 8-6 record on their home field, making this a pretty solid spot to take a look at the Mariners.
Final Phillies-Mariners Prediction & Pick
The Phillies should win this game fairly easily. Seattle has been far too inconsistent to count on, and they aren't worth a pick even as underdogs.
Final Phillies-Mariners Pick: Philadelphia Phillies ML: (-126)
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