The Philadelphia Phillies take on the Seattle Mariners. Check out our MLB odds series, for our Phillies Mariners prediction and pick.
Ranger Suarez gets the start for the Phillies, while Chris Flexen starts for the Mariners.
Ranger Suarez has a 4.63 ERA. He has started five games, producing three solid outings and two bad performances. He has walked eight hitters in just over 18 innings while striking out only 12. He urgently needs to improve his walk-to-strikeout ratio.
Chris Flexen has a 3.10 ERA. He has pitched into the fifth inning of every start this season. In all five starts, he has not given up more than three runs. He has stayed out of the big inning and given the Mariners a chance to win. It is concerning that in 24 innings pitched, Flexen has allowed 22 hits. That's a lot. On the good side, he has walked only six. Still, he needs to get hitters to make softer, less clean contact.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Phillies-Mariners MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Phillies-Mariners Odds
Philadelphia Phillies: +1.5 (-200)
Seattle Mariners: -1.5 (+164)
Over: 7.5 (-114)
Under: 7.5 (-106)
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Why The Phillies Could Cover the Spread
The Seattle Mariners are the best reason to pick the Phillies in this game. Seattle is 2-10 in its last 12 games. The Mariners started the year 11-6 but have been a disaster since then. The M's can't score runs, a familiar problem for a franchise dealing with a 20-year playoff drought. It seems that the team is pressing under the weight of expectations. There was so much hype surrounding this team at the beginning of the season, and that solid 11-6 start only heightened the feeling that this was the year for the Mariners. When things began to get tough, everyone in the locker room felt the pressure, and it snowballed. This is something to keep in mind when making a Phillies Mariners prediction.
The Mariners do, on paper, have a better roster than they did a year ago, but this team is carrying expectations it did not have to handle in last year's feel-good season, which felt like fun and not a chore. This team is burdened, and burdened baseball teams do not do well. The MLB odds are stacked against Seattle yet again.
Why The Mariners Could Cover the Spread
The biggest reason to choose Seattle when you make a Phillies Mariners pick is that Philadelphia just played a doubleheader on Sunday and then had to fly across the country and three time zones to play a West Coast game with no day off. That is a brutal game-and-travel schedule. The Phillies might be the better team in this matchup, but there is a good chance that they will serve up a weary and sluggish performance on a Western trip after playing 18 tough innings against the New York Mets, one of the best teams in baseball.
The other especially good reason to take the Mariners here is that Chris Flexen is a better pitcher than Ranger Suarez. The much lower ERA, the higher total of innings, the noticeably superior walk-to-strikeout ratio, and better overall consistency all support the idea that the Mariners are going to get a better-pitched game on Monday.
Final Phillies-Mariners Prediction & Pick
If the Phillies win, it won't be because they are fresh. They have to be tired after playing 18 innings on Sunday and flying across the country. The Mariners could easily play a bad ballgame and enable the Phils to win, but the odds are with the M's here.
Final Phillies-Mariners Prediction & Pick: Mariners -1.5
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