Attention baseball fans and bettors! We have a highly anticipated NL East matchup as the Philadelphia Phillies square off with the Miami Marlins at LoanDepot Park. Join us for our MLB odds series where our Phillies-Marlins prediction and pick will be revealed.
Fresh off of a three-game winning streak, the Phillies enter play on Tuesday holding the second Wild Card spot in the National League playoff race. At 78-62 overall, Philadelphia will call upon a lefty in Bailey Falter, who is 4-3 with a 4.02 ERA on the season.
The Marlins have been out of the playoff race for quite some time as they currently sit at 58-83, but they will have one of the best pitchers in the sport at their disposal in the fantastic hurler himself in Sandy Alcantara, who is 12-7 with a 2.43 ERA in his 28 starts on the year.
Here are the Phillies-Marlins MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Phillies-Marlins Odds
Philadelphia Phillies: +1.5 (-215)
Miami Marlins: -1.5 (+176)
Over: 7 (-115)
Under: 7 (-105)
Why The Phillies Could Cover The Spread
For starters, the Phillies could cover the spread because of how well they have played in 16 games versus the Marlins this season. Ahead of Tuesday evening's matchup, Philadelphia had defeated Miami 10-6 over the course of the regular season and they should be even more committed to winning an eleventh time while they sit in the middle of an intense Wild Card race. At the moment, Philly sits 1.5 games up on the Padres for the second Wild Card playoff slot.
In order to cover the spread against the Marlins, expect the Phillies to continue their winning ways with Falter on the bump. Over the course of the long and grueling baseball season, the Phillies are an impressive 11-4 whenever Falter makes a start. Not only that, but the dazzling 25-year-old southpaw posted a 4-1 record to go along with a 1.91 ERA at the Triple-A level, as his pitching arsenal is definitely able to make the transition to the big leagues. In his most recent start against the Marlins coming last Wednesday, falter logged 5 1/3 innings while only surrendering two hits on seven hits.
Offensively, the ‘Phils have been absolutely lethal while at the plate. Through their 140 games played up to this point, the Phillies have scored the sixth-most runs in the league including possessing the fifth-best slugging percentage at .426. Without a doubt, the Phillies have the hitters to hit for extra-base hits and home runs, which may prove to be beneficial in crunch time later tonight versus Miami.
Why The Marlins Could Cover The Spread
On paper, the Marlins look like a team that does not stand a chance against a playoff-bound Phillies squad. However, Philadelphia doesn't quite have a pitcher with the caliber of Sandy Alcantara on their roster. The 2022 All-Star is no doubt Miami's best chance to cover the spread and ultimately come up with a victory at home versus Philly.
Clearly, it wasn't Alcantara's best outing of the year in his last start against the Phillies in which he allowed five runs on eight hits despite not walking one batter and punching out seven hitters. Even with the rocky showing by the 27-year-old, Alcantara still is among the upper echelon of pitchers in all of baseball. Throughout his career, Alcantara is an even 6-6 in 15 starts against the Phillies but also holds a minuscule 3.19 ERA over the course of those outings. Most likely, Alcantara will be effective enough to help Miami cover the spread on Tuesday.
Conversely, it is a must that the Marlins offense shows up in a big way later today. As a whole, Miami is considered a bottom-five offense statistically in the major leagues, as they have only generated 506 runs total on the year. If there will be a name that can help lead the way at the dish, look no further than second-baseman Jazz Chisholm who leads the club with his 14 home runs along with his .254 batting average and 45 RBIs.
Final Phillies-Marlins Prediction & Pick
The Miami Marlins have a tremendous chance to play spoiler, but unfortunately for the fish, this game means more to the Phillies as they continue their pursuit in their return to the postseason. Not to mention, but there is great value to side with the Phillies to come into this one as +1.5 run underdogs.
Final Phillies-Marlins Prediction & Pick: Phillies +1.5 (-215)
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