The Cincinnati Reds get set to host the Philadelphia Phillies at Great American Ball Park on Monday night. It’s time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Phillies-Reds prediction and pick.
This is a makeup game from the rainout that occurred on June. Cincinnati will look to turn the tide after losing seven of its last 10 games coming in. Philadelphia has lost five of its last seven games, which makes this game a battle of two struggling clubs. Which team will be able to build some momentum as they head into their next series?
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the Phillies-Reds odds.
MLB Odds: Phillies-Reds Odds
Philadelphia Phillies +1.5 (-151)
Cincinnati Reds -1.5 (+131)
Over 10 Runs (-105)
Under 10 Runs (-115)
Why The Phillies Could Cover The Spread
The Phillies are currently sitting in fourth place in the NL East with a 36-39 record. They are five games back in the division and will look to build on their win against the New York Mets on Sunday. Philadelphia has a talented club that has performed very well in home games this season. It's their 15-25 record on the road that has really limited them from climbing back into contention in the NL East.
The Phillies have been a middle-of-the-pack club offensively with 4.25 runs scored per game. Their offensive production has taken a big dip on the road with just 3.90 runs per game when playing away from Citizens Bank Park. They just finished a four-game series split against the Mets that saw them score only 10 runs overall. The pitching staff has also been mediocre at best, which explains why this team is below .500 with ground to cover in the standings.
Philadelphia will turn to Spencer Howard for the makeup affair. The 24-year-old right-hander will make his fifth start of the season on Monday. He is 0-2 with a 4.05 ERA through his first four starts and a 5.59 ERA overall. His last appearance came out of the bullpen as he allowed two runs on three hits and two walks in 1 2/3 innings of work. He has not gotten through the fifth inning in any appearance this season.
Why The Reds Could Cover The Spread
The Reds have regressed a bit over the past few weeks and are now 38-38 on the season and six games back of the Milwaukee Brewers in the division. Luckily for Cincinnati, up comes this matchup against a Phillies club that's 5-15 in the last 20 at Great American Ball Park.
The Reds have really produced at the plate this season with 4.89 runs per game, which is good for seventh in the majors. They have really outdone themselves at home with 5.67 runs scored per game. The Reds can hit with the best of them, but it's the pitching staff that has hindered this club's success. Cincinnati allows the 25th-most runs at 5.03 per game. They've also allowed a half-run more per game when playing at home.
The Reds will turn to Wade Miley for Monday's battle with the Phillies. The 34-year-old left-hander has had a phenomenal season with a 6-4 record and 2.85 ERA through 13 starts. Miley has been on a tear lately, allowing two runs or fewer in six straight starts coming in. He has registered three straight quality starts and dealt seven innings of two-run ball against the Minnesota Twins his last time out.
Final Phillies-Reds Prediction & Pick
Both of these teams have been underwhelming of late, but I'm higher on the Cincinnati Reds heading into this matchup. I am going to lean on the pitching matchup as the main factor in predicting this outcome. The disparity is clear because Wade Miley has been absolutely dealing of late and Spencer Howard has struggled to survive in every start this season. The Reds have been hitting the ball very well at home, and the Phillies have been awful on the road for a reason.
FINAL PICK: Cincinnati Reds ML (-152)
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