After a grind-out 4-3 win that favored the Padres last night, these two franchises separated by more than 2,400 miles will face off on the diamond for a rematch in game two of the series. Join us for our MLB odds series, where our Pirates-Padres prediction and pick can be seen by sports betting fanatics everywhere!
The Pirates had the Padres right where they wanted them in Friday's nail-biting matchup, but were unable to hold San Diego at bay after surrendering a run in the eighth inning that proved to be the final straw that broke the camel's back. As a whole, the Pirates now sit at 18-26 which includes a 7-12 road record. Tasked with evening up the series will be righty J.T. Brubaker, who has definitely struggled so far this season with an 0-4 record and a 4.64 earned-run average.
With a record of 29-16 through 45 games played, the Padres will send out the un-hittable Joe Musgrove, who is a perfect 5-0 with a marvelous 1.90 ERA in his eight total starts.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Pirates-Padres MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Pirates-Padres Odds
Pittsburgh Pirates: +1.5 (-111)
San Diego Padres: -1.5 (-108)
Over: 7 (-112)
Under: 7 (-108)
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Why The Pirates Could Cover the Spread
The Pirates were a few plays going their way until the Padres took the lead late in a gut-wrenching loss for Pittsburgh. They could cover the spread against the Padres simply because Brubaker could be finally turning a corner.
While many of you are probably scoffing at that statement and with good reason because of how poorly he's pitched in 2022, some would think that he is eventually going to put the pieces together and fire up a quality outing for his ball club. Looking closer at what Brubaker has brought to the table in 2022, you will find that he is coming off of his best outing of the season against the Rockies on May 23rd. In that outing, Brubaker pitched 6 2/3 scoreless innings and only gave up five hits in the 2-1 victory. While he is still trying to secure his first victory of the season, it was clearly a step in the right direction for the Pittsburgh hurler.
Pittsburgh would definitely appreciate a strong performance out of Brubaker, as the Pirates currently possess the fewest quality starts in the league with only five and also have the fourth-worst ERA at 4.64.
Offensively, it is a miracle that the Pirates haven't been worse off overall, as they have struggled mightily at the plate. Throughout their 44 games, the Pirates have batted only .223 and have scored only 149 runs, the second-fewest in all of baseball.
Why The Padres Could Cover the Spread
Unlike Pittsburgh, things could not be rosier for the Padres, as they sit only two games back of the Dodgers after the win against the Pirates yesterday. After a disappointing 2021 campaign that saw San Diego go only 79-83 when expectations were as high as ever entering the season, it appears the Friars are back on track in pursuing their ultimate goal of winning a championship. While this is the objective for most teams throughout Major League baseball, only a select handful truly has what it takes to be the last ones standing at the end of the year.
At first glance, the Padres certainly have what it takes, especially since they are keeping pace with the Dodgers and could ultimately win the division if a few bounces go their way. When looking at this matchup on paper, the Padres shouldn't have any issues on paper when squaring off with the Pirates to kick off the weekend.
With a respectable offensive attack led by 3B Manny Machado and 1B Eric Hosmer, the Padres should have no issue with Pirates pitching, as San Diego has scored 194 runs as a team on the season.
On the mound is where the Padres really make things difficult for the opposition, as no squad in the majors does a better job in limiting hits throughout a lineup. Teams are raking a lowly .215 against Padres arms, which is the lowest mark in baseball. With Musgrove scheduled to take the first pitch for the Friars on Saturday, San Diego has a multitude of reasons why they should cover against Pittsburgh. In Musgrove's eight starts on the season, the Padres have managed to win them all.
Final Pirates-Padres Prediction & Pick
Even with the close contest on Friday, the fact of the matter is that Musgrove has been one of the most efficient pitchers in the game and is facing a Pirates lineup that is as dangerous as a harmless house fly. Put your money on the Padres in this one and you may end up slightly richer by night's end.
Final Padres-Pirates Prediction & Pick: Padres -1.5 (-108)
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