The Texas Rangers take on the Houston Astros. Check out our MLB odds series for our Rangers Astros prediction and pick.
Glenn Otto goes to the hill for the Rangers, while Justin Verlander gets the call for the Astros.
Glenn Otto has a 5.31 ERA. He doesn't get destroyed in his starts, but he very regularly gives up at least two runs, usually three or four, and he doesn't pitch deep into the games he starts. That's the profile of a pitcher with an ERA of well over five runs. Otto has allowed at least two runs in every start since May 25. He has not pitched into the seventh inning in any of his starts since May 25. He pitched six full innings in three starts since May 25.
The problem Otto and the Rangers face in this game is that Otto's tendency to allow two to four runs in most starts — he has done so in all but four of his starts this year — offers very little margin for error against the man Texas will face in this matchup.
Justin Verlander will make two to four runs stand up in most games. Verlander's ERA is 1.73. His July ERA was 1.01. He has allowed more than one earned run in only one of his last 10 starts, dating back to June 2. He is the clear front-runner in the American League Cy Young Award race, with Shane McClanahan and Alek Manoah struggling in recent weeks. Verlander is losing nothing on his fastball as he gets older, something longtime Astro fans can easily connect to another legendary Astro, fireballer Nolan Ryan.
Verlander can still bring the heat with a 97- or 98-mile-per-hour fastball when he really needs one in a big situation, but what makes him (and his fastball) so good is that he mixes in plenty of sliders and curveballs and is constantly giving batters a different mix and sequencing of pitches. Once in a while, on 3-2 counts or in other big spots, Verlander will unleash a changeup which gets hitters completely off balance.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Rangers-Astros MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Rangers-Astros Odds
Texas Rangers: +1.5 (+126)
Houston Astros: -1.5 (-152)
Over: 7.5 (-106)
Under: 7.5 (-114)
Why The Rangers Could Cover the Spread
The Rangers grabbed a quick 3-0 lead over the Astros on Tuesday but let the lead slip away. The Rangers have faltered late in a number of their games against the Astros this year, but if this is a game in which they can build a lead and protect it, they can change the equation. Justin Verlander is the best starting pitcher in the American League, but he has been so insanely good in recent weeks that he is bound to have a clunker at some point. Consider the parallel example of Clayton Kershaw, who had a 0.40 ERA in his first few starts in the month of July. He then stumbled in a July 24 start against the Giants and struggled before suffering a back injury. This doesn't mean Verlander is going to have a back injury, but he might easily run into a bad start. He is overdue for one.
Why The Astros Could Cover the Spread
They're the best team in the American League, or at least the favorite to win the American League. The Rangers are not a good team at all. Justin Verlander versus Glenn Otto is a total mismatch. We don't need to wonder who's the favorite here.
Final Rangers-Astros Prediction & Pick
Justin Verlander versus Glenn Otto. Enough said.
Final Rangers-Astros Prediction & Pick: Astros -1.5
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