Two of the top teams in the AL battle it out in Houston! It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Rays-Astros prediction and pick.
The Tampa Bay Rays head into Houston third in the AL Wild Card race. They are (85-71) on the year and are a half-game behind the Seattle Mariners and two games behind the Toronto Blue Jays. Tampa dropped their final two games in Cleveland to drop down in the Wild Card standings and have a tough final six games. However, it would take a miracle for the Baltimore Orioles to take the postseason from them as they are still five games behind.
The Astros own the best record in the American League and will likely have the No. 1 seed come playoff time. This is still a big series for them because they know the Rays are trying to win at all costs. Houston still has yet to officially claim the top seed to count on them to provide the effort. This game tonight will feature two elite starters so let's get right to the prediction.
Here are the Rays-Astros MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Rays-Astros Odds
Tampa Bay Rays: +1.5 (-156)
Houston Astros: -1.5 (+130)
Over: 6.5 (-120)
Under: 6.5 (-102)
Why The Rays Could Cover The Spread
Starting for the Rays tonight is right-hander Drew Rasmussen. The 27-year-old has been electric all year long with some of the best numbers in the game. Because he missed time this year he isn't qualified due to innings. However, his 2.85 ERA and 1.06 WHIP would be in the top 20 in the MLB. Rasmussen has pitched a quality start in four of his last five outings allowing 10 runs and striking out 23. In his last outing, he pitched 6.1 innings allowing one run off of three hits. Toronto took the win 3-1. The good news is that he has pitched solid numbers against three of the best teams in baseball over his last few starts. If he can pitch another quality start tonight, then expect the Rays to be in this game until the end.
After scoring 10 runs in back-to-back games against the Blue Jays, the Rays' offense hasn't been the same in the five games after. They have combined for 10 runs in those five games and that is a major reason why they went (1-4). With just six games remaining, the offense must start clicking. They are facing elite pitching this series and if they don't string together some runs now then this could hurt them in the Wild Card round.
Randy Arozarena, Yandy Diaz, Wander Franco, and Harold Ramirez need to be on their game tonight. Those four are the top hitters in the lineup and they must produce more than just one run a game. David Peralta hasn't hit the ball as well as he did in Arizona, but he is a huge addition to this lineup that needs left-handed hitting.
Why The Astros Could Cover The Spread
Pitching for the Astros tonight is one of the top young starters in the game. Framber Valdez is pitching lights out this year and his numbers back it up. His 2.69 ERA is 11th in the MLB and his 182 strikeouts are good for 19th. He is 4th in wins with 16 and the Astros have won the last three games he's started. Valdez is coming off of a poor performance as he allowed seven runs off of 11 hits to the Baltimore Orioles on the road. His last home start was against the Oakland Athletics where he allowed two runs off of four hits. Expect Valdez to have a bounceback outing tonight.
We all know the Astros have one of the most well-balanced clubs in the game. Not only is their pitching top-notch, but their offense smashes as well. Houston is 6th with a .743 team OPS, 5th in slugging at .423, 4th in home runs with 208, and 7th in RBIs with 707. The point is that they contain one of the best lineups in the game and it's led by Yordan Alvarez. Air Yordan is 10th in baseball with his .304 batting average and is 5th with 37 homers. The stat that stands out from Yordan is his 1.021 OPS which is second to only Aaron Judge. He is currently dealing with an ankle injury and hasn't played since being removed on Tuesday. If he is out then that will be a huge miss for the Astros.
Final Rays-Astros Prediction & Pick
This should be a close matchup that will be decided on who has the better pitching outing. I like the Rays to cover this spread as they are fighting to clinch a postseason spot.
Final Rays-Astros Prediction & Pick: Tampa Bay Rays +1.5 (-156)
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