The Tampa Bay Rays and the Toronto Blue Jays will begin a three-game series on Monday night. It's time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Rays-Blue Jays prediction and pick.
This series will go a long way in deciding the winner of the AL East. The Rays are the current leader, holding a nine-game lead over the second-place Blue Jays. A couple of wins here will essentially lock up the division title for Tampa Bay and force Toronto to hope for a wild card spot. The Blue Jays have actually taken a wild card spot from the rival New York Yankees, but they only lead New York by one game. A series win would be huge for both teams, so expect to see some incredibly competitive baseball starting on Monday night.
Here's how the bookmakers have set the lines for Monday's game.
MLB Odds: Rays-Blue Jays Odds
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Tampa Bay Rays ML (+118)
Toronto Blue Jays ML (-128)
Over 9 runs (-112)
Under 9 runs (-108)
Why The Rays Could Cover The Spread
Throughout the season, Tampa Bay's offensive numbers haven't been particularly impressive. However, the Rays have managed to turn things around at the plate in the last couple of weeks. Their team batting average in September is a whopping .276. Tampa Bay's OBP, OPS, and slugging percentage are all the highest they've ever been over the last two weeks. The Rays are catching fire at the right time, and Blue Jays pitcher Alek Manoah will find that out the hard way.
Manoah had a stretch of incredible starts earlier in the season, but it's safe to say that that has come to an end. Over his last seven appearances, the righty has earned a 5.26 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP. Those numbers aren't great, and they aren't the only statistics that help the Rays in this one. Tampa Bay has been better against right-handed pitchers than lefties, earning a higher OBP, OPS, and slugging percentage against righties. The Rays also perform better offensively when they play on the road. All of their major batting stats improve when they're away from Tropicana Field.
Why The Blue Jays Could Cover The Spread
The Rays have announced that Collin McHugh will start on Monday night in what will be a bullpen game. McHugh has been one of the Rays' best relievers, but he almost never pitches for more than a couple of innings. After McHugh's exit, the Blue Jays will get to face a Tampa Bay bullpen that has been depleted by injury. The Rays have also relied on their bullpen heavily in the last three games, so fatigue will be a factor. This should be a good day for Toronto's elite offense.
This game is also a great chance for Manoah to get back on track. The young starter has already faced the Rays twice this season, pitching a combined 10 innings while only allowing two runs over that span. Manoah also has the advantage of playing at home, where he's been significantly better all season long. The righty's ERA drops from 4.34 on the road to 2.97 at home, with most of his other stats following suit and improving. This matchup isn't nearly as bad as it seems for Manoah.
Final Rays-Blue Jays Prediction & Pick
Both teams have some things going for them heading into Monday's game, but it's hard to pick either one of them confidently. Instead, the over is the best selection. Asking any bullpen for nine innings of work against the Blue Jays is asking a ton, and Manoah has been ice-cold lately. The Blue Jays are the next-best pick.
FINAL PICK: Over 9 runs (-112)
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