The Tampa Bay Rays and the Baltimore Orioles will begin a three-game series at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on Friday. It's time to continue our MLB odds coverage with a Rays-Orioles prediction and pick.
The Rays are coming off a horrible stretch where they have gone 1-5 over the first six games of this road trip and 4-7 over 11 games. The New York Yankees swept them in a three-game series at Yankee Stadium in a stretch where they mustered only four runs. They have three games left on this trip before they head home to face the Yankees. Tampa Bay is 35-28 and in third place in the AL East while generating a 14-15 road record.
The Orioles split a four-game series in Toronto and are 5-5 over their last 10 games. Additionally, the Orioles now have an outside shot at the wildcard, as they trail the last spot by seven games. Beating Tampa Bay in this series would tighten the gap and give this young team more hope. The Orioles are 2-4 against the Rays in 2022 but won two of three in the three-game set the teams played in Baltimore. Now, they hope to replicate that success and take another series from their division rivals in front of their fans. The Orioles are 28-37 and fifth in the AL East, but have a 15-15 home record.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Rays-Orioles odds:
MLB odds: Rays-Orioles Odds
Rays: +1.5 (-106)
Orioles: -1.5 (-128)
Over: 8.5 (-118)
Under: 8.5 (-104)
*Watch MLB Games LIVE with fuboTV (click for free trial)
Why The Rays Could Cover The Spread
The Rays will go with Shane Baz on the hill. Baz is 0-1 with a 19.29 ERA in his one start. He struggled in his season debut, lasting 2 1/3 innings of work. Likewise, he allowed five earned runs on three hits while walking three batters and striking out two. Baz cruised through the first two innings and then felt his doom in the third inning. Ultimately, it led to a grand slam by Luis Arraez that spelled the end of Baz's night. Baz only induced five swings-and-misses on 48 pitches, and four of those came from his cutter.
Baz will look for some help from an offense that has not performed well recently. The Rays are 24th in batting average, 26th in on-base percentage, 21st in home runs, 26th in slugging percentage, and 24th in runs. Randy Arozarena and Ji-Man Choi are the real offensive threats on this team. Arozarena has seven home runs and 31 RBIs. Meanwhile, Choi has five home runs and 32 RBIs.
The Rays do have the fifth-best bullpen in baseball. Thus, they can keep a game close when needed. If the score is tight toward the end, the bullpen will hold.
The Rays will cover the spread if Baz can go longer in this game. He must avoid the terrible inning and keep the ball in the yard. When he comes out, he has a bullpen ready to roll. Likewise, Baz needs some help from an inept offense that has struggled to drive in runs. If the Rays want any chance of ending their slump, they need to start producing runs.
Why The Orioles Could Cover The Spread
The Orioles will go with Dean Kremer on the mound. Kremer is 1-1 with a 3.86 ERA in 2022. Likewise, he notched his first win since 2022 in his last start. Kremer tossed five innings while allowing two runs (one earned) to pick up the win. Previously, Kremer had gone 0-9 in 17 major league starts. The victory helped him with confidence and might go a long way toward helping the Orioles. Now, Kremer and the Orioles hope he can build off it and get a winning streak generated.
Kremer has a good bullpen behind him. The Orioles rank seventh in the majors in bullpen ERA. While they still are a terrible team, the Orioles have improved leaps and bounds thanks to a solid bullpen. But they need some help from the hitters.
The Orioles rank 26th in batting average, 23rd in on-base percentage, 19th in runs, 15th in home runs, and 22nd in slugging percentage. Ryan Mountcastle and Trey Mancini are their biggest offensive threats. Mountcastle is hitting .267 with 12 home runs and 33 RBIs. Meanwhile, Mancini is batting .290 with six home runs and 25 RBIs.
The Orioles will cover the spread if they can get to Baz early and obtain a lead. Kremer must hold his end of the bargain and keep his team in the game. The bullpen can hold the fort and seal the game.
Final Rays-Orioles Prediction & Pick
The Orioles covered the spread twice out of the three home games they played against the Rays. The Rays are a better team but are struggling. Baz is a great pitcher but might need a few starts to find his groove again. Take the Orioles to cover in a close game at Oriole Park.
Final Rays-Orioles Prediction & Pick: Orioles: -1.5 (-128)
Follow Us
Subscribe