The Rays look to clinch win their third game of the series against the Red Sox, as the team teams matchup at Tropicana Field on Wednesday evening. It’s time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Red Sox-Rays prediction and pick.
What a tale of two seasons. After leading the AL East for much of the earlier portion of 2021, the Red Sox have dropped an unthinkable ten full games behind the Rays in the division standings. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay holds the best record in the American League at 84-48 and look to be the favorites to win their second consecutive AL pennant. Boston has been completely outplayed in the first two games of this series, and it makes sense. The Rays are just that much of a better ballclub this year.
Here’s how the bookmakers have set the lines for Wednesday's game.
MLB Odds: Red Sox-Rays Odds
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Boston Red Sox (-104)
Tampa Bay Rays (-106)
Over 7 1/2 runs (-110)
Under 7 1/2 runs (-110)
Why the Red Sox Could Win
The Red Sox could win because they have their ace on the hill – Chris Sale. Although Sale just returned from Tommy John Surgery mid-August (after not pitching since 2019), he's looked like his usual dominant self in his three starts with the Sox this season. Sale holds a 2.35 ERA across 15 1/3 innings. He's earned the win in all three games and has struck out at least five batters in each outing too. He has yet to allow more than two runs in any of his starts thus far, and one of his starts saw him allow no runs in five innings, which was a win against Texas. Sale has a 2.94 ERA in 20 career games against the Rays. At Tropicana Field, his career ERA shrinks to 2.01 in eleven games. Sale has thrived in St. Pete and today should be no different. While the Rays are definitely the better overall team, the Sox have the upper hand today because of Sale.
Why The Rays Could Win
There's a reason this team is the best team in the American League. They may not have any superstar players, but day after day, the Rays often find themselves in the win column. Three Rays' batters have blasted over 20 home runs this season – Austin Meadows (22), Mike Zunino (27), and Brandon Lowe (31). And the team ranks third in the AL for overall teams home runs. As for today's pitcher, Drew Rasmussen has pitched very well since become a more consistent starter. After pitching out of the bullpen for most of this season, Rasmussen has started in his last three appearances. In 13.0 innings, he has a 1.38 ERA, never allowing more than one earned run in any of those starts. He's the latest of many players in Tampa Bay to find success despite most baseball fans likely not knowing much about them. But this method has clearly worked for the Rays.
Even if the Rays' lineup doesn't explode off of Chris Sale, look for Tampa to find its bats against a Sox bullpen that has struggled lately. A strong performance by Rasmussen can make this a pitcher's duel heading into the late innings, at which point the Rays have the pedigree to pick up a clutch hit in the eight or ninth inning to secure their 10th consecutive victory.
Oh yeah, I forgot to mention that the Rays are in the midst of baseball's longest active winning. Kind of a big deal.
Final Red Sox-Rays Prediction & Pick
Chris Sale makes sure the Red Sox don't get swept in this four-game series. He pitches his best game of the season, shutting down this Rays potent lineup with a 5.0 inning gem that includes seven strikeouts. The Red Sox win 4-2 and gain a much-needed victory over a Rays team that has had Boston's number lately. The Rays may be hot right now as evidenced by their nine-game winning streak, but Chris Sale is the pitcher you'd want on the mound to bring an end to such a winning streak.
FINAL PICK: Red Sox MONEYLINE (-104)
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