The Boston Red Sox and Detroit Tigers will kick off a three-game series on Tuesday night. It's time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Red Sox-Tigers prediction and pick.
The Red Sox are on a surprising cold streak heading into this matchup. They've dropped their last four games, losing their lead in the AL East over that span. The Tigers have been similarly cold, winning only four of their last 10 contests. Detroit is surprisingly sitting at third in AL Central, and despite the fact that they will almost certainly miss the playoffs, the Tigers have already exceeded a lot of expectations.
Here's how the bookmakers have set the lines for Tuesday's game.
MLB Odds: Red Sox-Tigers Odds
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Boston Red Sox ML (-138)
Detroit Tigers ML (+128)
Over 10 runs (-120)
Under 10 runs (+100)
Why The Red Sox Could Win
Boston has relied on an elite offense to win games throughout this entire season, and that formula won't change now. The Red Sox rank in the top five in baseball in batting average, slugging percentage, and OPS. Their lineup is loaded with stars, with J.D. Martinez and Xander Bogaerts each putting together elite seasons. Dealing with this lineup is a tough task for anyone, including Tigers starter Wily Peralta.
Peralta has been surprisingly good this season, but the Red Sox have some statistical edges over him in this matchup. Peralta allows a 8.6% barrel percentage and a 40.6% hard hit percentage. Both of those are abnormally high, and he's about to face a lineup that has seven batters that have a hard hit percentage higher than 43%. The Red Sox also have five hitters who own a 9.0% barrel percentage or higher. Boston specializes in crushing the baseball, and the stats prove that Peralta gives up hard-hit balls all the time. This is a great matchup for the Red Sox hitters.
Why The Tigers Could Win
Luckily for Detroit, they'll be facing Boston starter Garrett Richards in this series opener. Richards has struggled all year, earning himself a 5.15 ERA and a 1.66 WHIP. Richards' stats in his last seven starts somehow get even worse, as his ERA shoots up to 7.55 with his WHIP landing at 1.81. Any team in the league has a good chance of scoring off of Richards, including this struggling Tigers offense. Detroit should be able to put together a decent offensive showing against the righty.
While Peralta does have some stats going against him, there are a couple of reasons to believe that he can put together a strong outing. The Red Sox are a worse offense when they play away from home, as they see their batting average, OBP, and OPS all fall when they play away from Fenway Park. Boston also struggles against right-handed pitching, seeing a dip in their batting stats across the board whenever they face a righty. This is still a tough lineup for Peralta, but it's possible he puts together a strong performance.
Final Red Sox-Tigers Prediction & Pick
This is a great opportunity to pick an upset. The Tigers have a huge pitching advantage, and they get to face a pitcher who has been consistently terrible throughout the season. Detroit should be able to put up runs in the early innings and has a pitcher on the mound who is capable of protecting that lead.
FINAL PICK: Detroit Tigers ML (+128)
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